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Economic Voting and Political Sophistication in the U.S.: A Reassessment |
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Abstract:
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We propose a re-examination of the conditioning effect of political sophistication on economic voting in U.S. presidential elections. Testing Gomez and Wilson’s (2001) hypotheses with survey data from the last five American presidential elections (1988-2004), we show that low sophisticates strictly but systematically rely on sociotropic economic judgments when deciding to support the incumbent party’s candidate. For their part, high sophisticates appear to use both sociotropic and pocketbook evaluations in their voting decision, but only in elections where the sitting incumbent is running for re-election (1992, 1996 and 2004). These results indicate that increasing sophistication allows individuals to see the connection between macroeconomic conditions and their own personal economic well-being. They also suggest that having a better ability at making causal attributions leads individuals not to hold the incumbent party’s candidate accountable for national and personal economic conditions in open-seat presidential races. |
Most Common Document Word Stems:
sophist (111), econom (98), vote (77), polit (68), elect (54), sociotrop (37), condit (34), pocketbook (34), presidenti (33), effect (29), american (27), use (27), nation (27), gomez (25), incumb (25), wilson (25), high (23), variabl (23), evalu (23), result (22), retrospect (22), |
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Association:
Name: American Political Science Association URL: http://www.apsanet.org
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Citation:
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MLA Citation:
| Belanger, Eric. and Godbout, Jean-Francois. "Economic Voting and Political Sophistication in the U.S.: A Reassessment" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC, Sep 01, 2005 <Not Available>. 2011-03-14 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p41459_index.html> |
APA Citation:
| Belanger, E. and Godbout, J. , 2005-09-01 "Economic Voting and Political Sophistication in the U.S.: A Reassessment" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2011-03-14 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p41459_index.html |
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript Review Method: Peer Reviewed Abstract: We propose a re-examination of the conditioning effect of political sophistication on economic voting in U.S. presidential elections. Testing Gomez and Wilson’s (2001) hypotheses with survey data from the last five American presidential elections (1988-2004), we show that low sophisticates strictly but systematically rely on sociotropic economic judgments when deciding to support the incumbent party’s candidate. For their part, high sophisticates appear to use both sociotropic and pocketbook evaluations in their voting decision, but only in elections where the sitting incumbent is running for re-election (1992, 1996 and 2004). These results indicate that increasing sophistication allows individuals to see the connection between macroeconomic conditions and their own personal economic well-being. They also suggest that having a better ability at making causal attributions leads individuals not to hold the incumbent party’s candidate accountable for national and personal economic conditions in open-seat presidential races. |
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application/pdf |
| Page count: |
21 |
| Word count: |
5240 |
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| Economic Voting and Political Sophistication in the U.S.: A Reassessment Éric Bélanger Department of Political Science McGill University Jean-François Godbout Center for Business Government and Society Kellogg School of Management & Department of Political Science Northwestern University Paper prepared for delivery at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association Washington D.C. September 1-4 2005 * Version 2.1 – PLEASE DO NOT CITE * Economic Voting and Political Sophistication in the U.S.: A Reassessment ABSTRACT We propose a |
| 0.17 (0.22) (0.23) (0.28) (0.52) Constant and 11 Control Variables a [not shown] Pseudo-R² 0.40 0.53 0.57 0.66 Log Likelihood -480.74 -608.23 -399.34 -296.09 N 1149 1856 1336 1275 * p < .05; ** p < .01 (one-tailed test) Entries are logit regression coefficients with standard errors in parentheses below. a Control variables included but not shown are the same as in Gomez and Wilson (2001) (see text; full results available on request). |
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