18
This construction of the turnout variable is based on valid votes: that is, it is
turnout less the number of informal and blank ballots that are incorporated into the
official figures reported. The model predicts two-thirds of the variation in Council
election turnout across the territorial authorities, and somewhat over half of that across
the 2004 wards.
Table 7: Predictors of Valid Vote Turnout in Contested Wards, 2004 and 2001
elections to Territorial Authority Councils
2001-2004, District-City
2004 Wards
B
Std.
Error
B
Std.
Error
(Constant)
83.34 **
6.20
71.32 **
5.57
STV=1, SMP=0
0.67
5.45
-0.61
2.25
DM
0.02
2.64
0.39
0.79
Councillors/Ward
0.17
0.21
2.14 **
0.24
2004=1, 2001=0
-4.92 **
0.98
Average Income ($000s)
-1.35 **
0.34
-1.54 **
0.32
% Maori
-0.25 **
0.03
-0.33 **
0.06
% Pacific
0.00
0.00
-0.31 **
0.09
N of Electors (000s)
-0.31 **
0.07
-0.78 **
0.11
Squared N of electors (000s)
-0.15 **
0.11
0.01 **
0.00
Mayor defeated
2.33
1.22
3.17 *
1.11
N Mayoral candidates
0.89 **
0.22
1.12 **
0.23
% Councillors elected on ticket
-0.02
0.03
0.06
*
0.03
Adjusted R
2
0.67
0.53
N
145
232
**
significant at less than .01
*
significant between .01 and .05
The model finds that, controlling for the effects of all other included variables, the
probability of people turning out for Council elections was about 5 per cent less in 2004
Convention