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Economic Accountability and Strategic Calibration in Japan's Liberal Democratic Party |
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Abstract:
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I propose a new explanation for the dominance of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan using the notion of strategic calibration. Existing theories of LDP hegemony emphasize a favorable electoral system and strong economic performance, but neither of these factors is sufficient to explain the partys recent success. Using public opinion data from 1960 to 2004, I show that the LDP employed a strategy to prevent unpopular prime ministers from tainting the partys image. Time series analyses show that inflation and unemployment have modest effects on cabinet support ratings, but they have no effects on LDP ratings. LDP leaders are sensitive to the relative support levels of the prime ministers cabinet and the party because the former affects the latter, though not the reverse. Duration models demonstrate that when cabinet ratings fall below party ratings, cabinets are more likely to be reshuffled and prime ministers are more likely to be replaced to avoid having the cabinets negative image rub off on the LDP. Although electoral rules, culture, and other factors surely play a role in sustaining the LDP, I reveal for the first time that the party manages it cabinet personnel strategically to maintain suitable party support in the electorate. |
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support (179), ldp (143), parti (137), cabinet (115), prime (74), minist (67), polit (53), econom (52), system (46), rate (45), public (40), elector (39), govern (38), era (37), japan (37), seri (36), time (36), model (34), 1 (32), relat (29), 2000 (28), |
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Association:
Name: American Political Science Association URL: http://www.apsanet.org
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Citation:
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MLA Citation:
| Burden, Barry. "Economic Accountability and Strategic Calibration in Japan's Liberal Democratic Party" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC, Sep 01, 2005 <Not Available>. 2011-03-14 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p41485_index.html> |
APA Citation:
| Burden, B. C. , 2005-09-01 "Economic Accountability and Strategic Calibration in Japan's Liberal Democratic Party" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2011-03-14 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p41485_index.html |
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript Review Method: Peer Reviewed Abstract: I propose a new explanation for the dominance of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan using the notion of strategic calibration. Existing theories of LDP hegemony emphasize a favorable electoral system and strong economic performance, but neither of these factors is sufficient to explain the partys recent success. Using public opinion data from 1960 to 2004, I show that the LDP employed a strategy to prevent unpopular prime ministers from tainting the partys image. Time series analyses show that inflation and unemployment have modest effects on cabinet support ratings, but they have no effects on LDP ratings. LDP leaders are sensitive to the relative support levels of the prime ministers cabinet and the party because the former affects the latter, though not the reverse. Duration models demonstrate that when cabinet ratings fall below party ratings, cabinets are more likely to be reshuffled and prime ministers are more likely to be replaced to avoid having the cabinets negative image rub off on the LDP. Although electoral rules, culture, and other factors surely play a role in sustaining the LDP, I reveal for the first time that the party manages it cabinet personnel strategically to maintain suitable party support in the electorate. |
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application/pdf |
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22 |
| Word count: |
9171 |
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| Economic Accountability and Strategic Calibration in Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party Barry C. Burden Harvard University Department of Government CGIS N420 Cambridge MA 02138 617.495.4249 burden@fas.harvard.edu www.fas.harvard.edu/~burden August 1 2005 This paper was prepared for presentation at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association Washington. A previous version was presented at the Midwest Political Science Association Chicago. I received helpful comments from Jim Alt Kentaro Fukumoto Phil Jones Mark Ramseyer and Rob Weiner. I thank Kentaro Fukumoto for |
| Case of Japan.” Comparative Politics 17:55-66. Reed Steven R. and Ikuo Kabashima. 2001. “The Effect of the Choices Available on Voting Behaviour: The Two Japanese Elections of 1993.” Electoral Studies 20:627-40. Satō Seizaburō and Tetsuhisa Matsuzaki. 1986. Jimintō seiken. Tokyo: Chūō Kōronsha. Shugart Matthew and Martin P. Wattenberg. 2003. Mixed-Member Electoral Systems: The Best of Both Worlds? New York NY: Oxford University Press. Stimson James A. 1976. “Public Support for American Presidents: A Cyclical Model.” Public Opinion Quarterly 40:1-21. |
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