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Economic Accountability and Strategic Calibration in Japan's Liberal Democratic Party
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While LDP politicians surely strive to maximize support for both the party and its leaders, I will argue that they are keenly interested in the relative standing of these two indicators. I compute a composite measure called “relative support,” which is the difference between LDP support and cabinet support. Figure 3 displays relative support over the last 45 years.
7
Values below zero
indicate more support for the current leadership than for the LDP; positive values indicate that the party is more popular than its leader. Aside from the unusual stamina of the Nakasone governments in the 1980s, the two series were roughly equal until the early 1990s. Since that time, the LDP has consistently underperformed relative to the cabinet. Until the end of the reform era, the mean levels of cabinet and LDP support were 35% and 32%. After 1994 the values stood at 39% and 23%, thus widening the gap from a mere three points to 15. Importantly, this separation does not result from the greater popularity of recent prime ministers. Rather, the gap has grown mostly because of the LDP’s decline during the reform era.
Figure 3: Relative Support for LDP and Cabinet
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0
-4
0
-2
0
0
2
0
L
D
P
S
u
p
p
o
rt - C
a
b
in
e
t S
u
p
p
o
rt
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Month
As an aside, I note that the permanent shift away from the LDP in 1993-4 does not benefit any other party in particular. Of the other possibilities, only “no party” support grew as a result of the LDP’s losses. Party independence rose steadily during postwar era, but it ratcheted up permanently in 1990s. The socialists, in contrast, reached their peak well before the reform era.Whether the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) provides a real challenge to the LDP in the future remains an open question as its support levels are currently below those of the LDP.
The lessons learned from these figures are several. Prime ministerial support is more volatile, and recently also higher, than support for the LDP. The prime minister time series swings up
7
For this plot and subsequent analyses, I have reversed cabinet support during the coalition era between August
1993 and June 1994. During these 11 months the measure is non-support, making it consistent with the other years when the LDP was part of the government.
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7
While LDP politicians surely strive to maximize support for both the party and its leaders, I will
argue that they are keenly interested in the relative standing of these two indicators. I compute a
composite measure called “relative support,” which is the difference between LDP support and
cabinet support. Figure 3 displays relative support over the last 45 years.
7
Values below zero
indicate more support for the current leadership than for the LDP; positive values indicate that
the party is more popular than its leader. Aside from the unusual stamina of the Nakasone
governments in the 1980s, the two series were roughly equal until the early 1990s. Since that
time, the LDP has consistently underperformed relative to the cabinet. Until the end of the
reform era, the mean levels of cabinet and LDP support were 35% and 32%. After 1994 the
values stood at 39% and 23%, thus widening the gap from a mere three points to 15.
Importantly, this separation does not result from the greater popularity of recent prime ministers.
Rather, the gap has grown mostly because of the LDP’s decline during the reform era.
Figure 3: Relative Support for LDP and Cabinet
-
6
0
-
4
0
-
2
0
0
2
0
L
D
P
S
u
p
p
o
r
t
-
C
a
b
i
n
e
t
S
u
p
p
o
r
t
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Month
As an aside, I note that the permanent shift away from the LDP in 1993-4 does not benefit any
other party in particular. Of the other possibilities, only “no party” support grew as a result of
the LDP’s losses. Party independence rose steadily during postwar era, but it ratcheted up
permanently in 1990s. The socialists, in contrast, reached their peak well before the reform era.
Whether the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) provides a real challenge to the LDP in the future
remains an open question as its support levels are currently below those of the LDP.
The lessons learned from these figures are several. Prime ministerial support is more volatile,
and recently also higher, than support for the LDP. The prime minister time series swings up
7
For this plot and subsequent analyses, I have reversed cabinet support during the coalition era between August
1993 and June 1994. During these 11 months the measure is non-support, making it consistent with the other years
when the LDP was part of the government.
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