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Table 1: Logistic regression estimates showing the determinants of voting choice in the 2004
presidential election. The dependent variable is coded so that a Bush vote is one and a
Kerry vote is zero.
Maximum likelihood
coefficient estimate
(standard error
in parentheses)
Odds
ratio
Party
identification
0.510
(0.120)
1.666
Liberal-conservative
self-placement
0.247
(0.188)
1.280
Candidate personality
trait assessments
2.041
(0.327)
7.698
Summary issue
attitudes
0.756
(0.259)
2.130
Sociotropic economic
judgments
0.575
(0.259)
0.563
Feelings about
the Iraq war
0.356
(0.151)
1.428
Constant
-4.168
Pseudo-R
2
0.778
Log Likelihood
-99.828
Number of observations
651
Note: Coefficients for all variables except liberal-conservative self-placement are statistically
significant at the 0.05 level (one-sided tests).
Data Source: 2004 CPS National Election Study.
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