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Was the Joke on the Democrats Again?: Registration, Turnout, and Partisan Choice in the 2004 Presidential election
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Was the Joke on the Democrats Again?:
Registration, Turnout, and Partisan Choice in the 2004 Presidential Election
Michael D. Martinez
Department of Political Science
University of Florida
Gainesville, Florida 32611-7325
Phone (352) 392-0262 x 282
## email not listed ##
David Hill
Department of Political Science
Valdosta State University
Valdosta, Georgia 31698
Phone (229) 333-5772 ## email not listed ##
Abstract:
In this paper, we explore the relationships between voter registration and turnout and between turnout and partisan outcomes using state and county level data from the 2000 and 2004 U.S. presidential elections. We find that increases in turnout were strongly associated with increases in registration, but that relationship was weaker in battleground states. We also find that increases in turnout were associated with more support for Kerry in non-battleground states, but that relationship was not evident in battleground states. Although the “joke is on the Democrats”, as DeNardo predicted, our county-level analysis shows no support for his proposition that turnout increases will benefit minority parties.
Paper presented for delivery at the Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Association, Washington DC, September 1-4, 2005. © American Political Science Association.
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| | Authors: Martinez, Michael. and Hill, David. |
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Was the Joke on the Democrats Again?:
Registration, Turnout, and Partisan Choice in the 2004 Presidential Election
Michael D. Martinez
Department of Political Science
University of Florida
Gainesville, Florida 32611-7325
Phone (352) 392-0262 x 282
## email not listed ##
David Hill
Department of Political Science
Valdosta State University
Valdosta, Georgia 31698
Phone (229) 333-5772
## email not listed ##
Abstract:
In this paper, we explore the relationships between voter registration and turnout and
between turnout and partisan outcomes using state and county level data from the 2000
and 2004 U.S. presidential elections. We find that increases in turnout were strongly
associated with increases in registration, but that relationship was weaker in battleground
states. We also find that increases in turnout were associated with more support for
Kerry in non-battleground states, but that relationship was not evident in battleground
states. Although the “joke is on the Democrats”, as DeNardo predicted, our county-level
analysis shows no support for his proposition that turnout increases will benefit minority
parties.
Paper presented for delivery at the Annual Meetings of the American Political Science
Association, Washington DC, September 1-4, 2005. © American Political Science
Association.
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