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Ecological Inference for large tables - The 1992 presidential vote in California
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It is an interesting question for further research if this special pattern for Asians and American Indians indicate a stronger integration in the society at large of the younger cohorts, of these categories - for example caused by higher education - or if this is an example of the ecological fallacy. In any case, the estimates seem not to be strongly affected by the regional division, as we saw in the previous examples. Noticeable is the stronger difference between the turnout of the youngest Blacks and Hispanics with the 32 regional division than with the two other regional divisions. It should be mentioned that the results seem to be less valid when counties are used as units instead of census tracts (these results are not shown here). Conclusion With the latent structure method for ecological inference the estimation of individual-level tables for the association between social categories and voting behavior seems quite valid, even for large tables, when one has access to data from many geographical units on a low level of aggregation. This is illustrated in this article for the 1992 presidential vote in California with voting data and social data about race, education and age from 5,532 census tracts. Interesting findings concern especially the estimation of turnout within different social groups and the fact that the overall estimates are not much affected by making separate estimates within homogenous political regions or within counties. The explanation why the regional division is not important is probably that the variation between the regions is small compared to the wide variation between the census tracts.
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It is an interesting question for further research if this special pattern for Asians and American
Indians indicate a stronger integration in the society at large of the younger cohorts, of these
categories - for example caused by higher education - or if this is an example of the ecological
fallacy. In any case, the estimates seem not to be strongly affected by the regional division, as
we saw in the previous examples. Noticeable is the stronger difference between the turnout of
the youngest Blacks and Hispanics with the 32 regional division than with the two other
regional divisions.
It should be mentioned that the results seem to be less valid when counties are used as units
instead of census tracts (these results are not shown here).
Conclusion
With the latent structure method for ecological inference the estimation of individual-level
tables for the association between social categories and voting behavior seems quite valid,
even for large tables, when one has access to data from many geographical units on a low
level of aggregation. This is illustrated in this article for the 1992 presidential vote in
California with voting data and social data about race, education and age from 5,532 census
tracts. Interesting findings concern especially the estimation of turnout within different social
groups and the fact that the overall estimates are not much affected by making separate
estimates within homogenous political regions or within counties. The explanation why the
regional division is not important is probably that the variation between the regions is small
compared to the wide variation between the census tracts.
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