Rallings & Thrasher
2
Abstract
A combination of aggregate and survey data are examined for possible
explanations for voter dropoff within the UK. First, polling station-level data
are assessed for the impact on voter turnout of socioeconomic and political
factors across general, local and European elections. This finds little support
for a resources model but does suggest that party competitiveness affects
dropoff. Second, synchronous local and European elections in 2004 for some
parts of the country provide the opportunity for assessing the contribution
towards European election turnout made by combinations of all-postal voting
and local council elections. It is clear that voter dropoff is reduced for
European elections when local elections are re-scheduled and when electors
are provided with a postal vote. There is some evidence that voters able to
alter the local authority political control are more inclined towards participation.
Third, the paper considers differences in the characteristics and attitudes of
individuals who vote in both general and local elections with those that vote
only in the former. Older people are more likely to be double voters, and while
civic duty remains influential, the individual’s own assessment of costs and
benefits of voting at a local election are crucial. Fourth, referendum voters in
the North East region of England reveal important clues about voter
engagement in direct democracy within the UK. These data help to confirm
earlier findings that dropoff occurs more or less equally across all social types
but also show that those who regard voting instrumentally are more inclined
than others towards participation.
Convention