Caty Clément
The Nuts and Bolds of State Collapse:
What to do when States Fail?
A QCA Analysis of Lebanon, Somalia and the former-Yugoslavia
Caty Clément, Harvard University
Abstract
This paper is the result of a research project designed to address two questions:
‘why’ do states collapse and ‘how’ do they collapse? Rather than testing
existing theories (largely non existent), this paper suggests a new model. The
first issue, the causes of state collapse, has been the focus of in depth research
over the recent years. The bulk of the comparative work came through large N
studies focussing on long-term structural conditions and often resulting in long
shopping lists of indicators. Instead, this research develops a concise set of four
core causes (rather than indicators) based on in-depth country research (small n)
using ‘soft’ qualitative data (quantitative being often unreliable and constraining
the research).
The second issue refers to the processes of state collapse and state building.
Charles Ragin’s QCA approach proved particularly efficient at processing
qualitative data highlighting the dynamics of process. The research has shown
that there is no one size fits all process of failure or recovery. Instead, different
pathways exist. It also suggests that some variables carry more weight than
others at specific moments in the process. As most current work suggests, the
economy is an important factor in both the triggering and the recovery from a
crisis situation. However, it plays a relative minimal role both at the early stages
of the destabilizing process and towards the end of the process when a state
crisis collapses. This explains why current early warning frameworks
adequately enough predict state weakness, but fail to foresee which weak states
will collapse. Two variables (the mobilization of advanced groups and an
inconsistent international environment) appear to be crucial to forecast state
collapse and to build strong states. There is an urgent need to integrate them in
mainstream analysis and generate adequate data.
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Caty Clément is a fellow at the Kennedy School’s programs of International Security and
Intra-State Conflict at Harvard University, 79 John F. Kennedy Street, Cambridge, MA
02138, email: ## email not listed ##
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