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Failing States, Failing Data: The Case for QCA (Qualitative Comparative Analysis)
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DRAFT! Not for Circulation
By no means a new phenomenon, state failure has only recently started to be studied in its own right
2
. After 9/11 when the terrorist threat became
tangible, weak and fragile states became a priority issue for many members of the international community.
According to the recent UN Secretary General’s High-level Panel Report on ‘Threats, Challenges and Change’, weak states rank among the six most pressing threats the world needs to address
3
. In October 2002, the OECD
together with the European Commission, the UNDP and the World Bank established a ‘Learning and Advisory Process on Difficult Partnership’ (LAP) to share analysis and best practices to shape a common strategy to engage fragile states. Many bilateral agencies (USAID, the State department, the Dutch, German, and Canadian development agencies to cite but a few) are developing new strategies to cope with weak and failing states. Likewise, the world’s principal international financial institutions (the World Bank, the IMF) and the US Treasury are reassessing their previous strategies aimed at the ‘most deserving countries’ to also include ‘weak and fragile states’. Finally, Washington’s most prominent think tanks (e.g., the Carnegie Commission, the Centre for Global Development) are commissioning research about ‘poor’, ‘stagnant’, ‘on the brink’, ‘fragile’, ‘failing’, ‘conflict and post-conflict’ states.
State failure is still largely a barren field. Research is contingent to the often partial or inexistent data, in itself a signal of state deficiency. Effective action is severely undermined by the weakness of substantive theory. Recent scholarly effort has increased our understanding of long-term structural factors indicating a ‘proneness’ to failure, but little is know about the medium-term precipitants. Why do states that muddled through more or less successfully for decades, collapse
4
?
2
Although state failure and state collapse both refer to extreme instances of weak statehood,
they each have a specific meaning whereby a collapsed state is a more acute version of failure. A failed state is one where all core functions have ceased to be performed (on a
continuous base and over the entire territory), but where some institutional structures may still exist. It is a case of functional failure without institutional failure. A collapsed state involves
both a functional failure (inability to perform core functions) and an institutional failure (the political superstructure has ceased to exist on a continuous base and as part of an overarching
integrative framework). In practice, the state rarely completely disappears. Bits and piece will suddenly reappear (e.g., a government, a parliament, a police force, road infrastructure),
but never over the entire territory or for long periods of time leading to what some have called a ‘dotted state’.
3
High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change, A More Secure World: Our Shared
Responsibility (United Nations, 2004).
4
State Failure Task Force
2
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DRAFT! Not for Circulation
By no means a new phenomenon, state failure has only recently started to be
studied in its own right
. After 9/11 when the terrorist threat became
tangible, weak and fragile states became a priority issue for many members
of the international community.
According to the recent UN Secretary General’s High-level Panel Report on
‘Threats, Challenges and Change’, weak states rank among the six most
pressing threats the world needs to address
. In October 2002, the OECD
together with the European Commission, the UNDP and the World Bank
established a ‘Learning and Advisory Process on Difficult Partnership’
(LAP) to share analysis and best practices to shape a common strategy to
engage fragile states. Many bilateral agencies (USAID, the State
department, the Dutch, German, and Canadian development agencies to cite
but a few) are developing new strategies to cope with weak and failing
states. Likewise, the world’s principal international financial institutions
(the World Bank, the IMF) and the US Treasury are reassessing their
previous strategies aimed at the ‘most deserving countries’ to also include
‘weak and fragile states’. Finally, Washington’s most prominent think tanks
(e.g., the Carnegie Commission, the Centre for Global Development) are
commissioning research about ‘poor’, ‘stagnant’, ‘on the brink’, ‘fragile’,
‘failing’, ‘conflict and post-conflict’ states.
State failure is still largely a barren field. Research is contingent to the often
partial or inexistent data, in itself a signal of state deficiency. Effective
action is severely undermined by the weakness of substantive theory.
Recent scholarly effort has increased our understanding of long-term
structural factors indicating a ‘proneness’ to failure, but little is know about
the medium-term precipitants. Why do states that muddled through more or
less successfully for decades, collapse
2
Although state failure and state collapse both refer to extreme instances of weak statehood,
they each have a specific meaning whereby a collapsed state is a more acute version of
failure. A failed state is one where all core functions have ceased to be performed (on a
continuous base and over the entire territory), but where some institutional structures may still
exist. It is a case of functional failure without institutional failure. A collapsed state involves
both a functional failure (inability to perform core functions) and an institutional failure (the
political superstructure has ceased to exist on a continuous base and as part of an overarching
integrative framework). In practice, the state rarely completely disappears. Bits and piece
will suddenly reappear (e.g., a government, a parliament, a police force, road infrastructure),
but never over the entire territory or for long periods of time leading to what some have called
a ‘dotted state’.
3
High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change, A More Secure World: Our Shared
Responsibility (United Nations, 2004).
4
State Failure Task Force
2
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