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Partisan Preferences and Party Loyalty: A challenge to theories of party position
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APSA WORKING PAPER AUGUST 2005
PARTISAN PREFERENCES AND PARTY LOYALTY
A challenge to theories of party position
Jane Green
jane.## email not listed ##
Nuffield College, Oxford
Commonly accepted explanations for party divergence are based on assumptions about the ideological polarization of partisans. This paper challenges these explanations in the British case by re-examining a) the distribution of partisans on five ideological scales of the British Election Survey cross-sections (1987 and 2001), and b) the effects of issue proximity upon the likelihood of being a Conservative identifier between 1992 and 2001, using the British Election Panel Studies, 1992-1997 and 1997-2001. I demonstrate that partisan preferences are now more consensual, leading to a ‘valence electorate’ in the UK. I also argue, due to the endogenous nature of issue proximity, that issue distance has not contributed to a significant reduction in partisan support for the Conservative Party. These findings call into question the application of ‘core vote’ theories of party behaviour.
I am grateful to Rob Ford, David Rueda, Iain McLean, Doron Shultziner, Chris Wlezien, Adrian Blau and Geoffrey Evans for comments on this paper.
Introduction
PLEASE DO NOT QUOTE WITHOUT AUTHOR’S PERMISSION
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APSA WORKING PAPER AUGUST 2005
PARTISAN PREFERENCES AND PARTY LOYALTY
A challenge to theories of party position
Jane Green
jane.## email not listed ##
Nuffield College, Oxford
Commonly accepted explanations for party divergence are
based on assumptions about the ideological polarization
of partisans. This paper challenges these explanations in
the British case by re-examining a) the distribution of
partisans on five ideological scales of the British Election
Survey cross-sections (1987 and 2001), and b) the effects
of issue proximity upon the likelihood of being a
Conservative identifier between 1992 and 2001, using the
British Election Panel Studies, 1992-1997 and 1997-2001.
I demonstrate that partisan preferences are now more
consensual, leading to a ‘valence electorate’ in the UK. I
also argue, due to the endogenous nature of issue
proximity, that issue distance has not contributed to a
significant reduction in partisan support for the
Conservative Party. These findings call into question the
application of ‘core vote’ theories of party behaviour.
I am grateful to Rob Ford, David Rueda, Iain McLean, Doron Shultziner, Chris Wlezien, Adrian Blau
and Geoffrey Evans for comments on this paper.
Introduction
PLEASE DO NOT QUOTE WITHOUT AUTHOR’S PERMISSION
1
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