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APSA WORKING PAPER AUGUST 2005
Table 6: Logistic regression model of issue proximity and Conservative party
identification exit, 1997 – 2001
Model 1
Model 2
Model 3
B (S.E.)
Exp (B)
B (S.E.)
Exp (B)
B (S.E.)
Exp (B)
Model constant
-.857 (.961)
-.531 (1.044)
-1.773 (1.144)
Proximity
measures
Left-right index
1997
.048
(.019) *
1.049
.039
(.020)
1.040
.039
(.020)
1.040
1998
.057
(.029) *
1.059
.070
(.031)
1.073
.052
(.032)
1.053
1999
-.016
(.033)
.984
-.022
(.033)
.978
-.028
(.035)
.972
2000
.012
(.033)
1.012
.018
(.033)
1.018
.018
(.035)
1.018
2001
.027
(.027)
1.027
.009
(.028)
1.009
.003
(.029)
1.003
EU integration
1997
.007
(.049)
1.007
.014
(.050)
1.014
.012
(.050)
1.012
1998
-.093
(.063)
.911
-.109
(.064)
.897
-.116
(.065)
.891
1999
.046
(.056)
1.047
.074
(.058)
1.076
.083
(.061)
1.086
2000
-.021
(.055)
.979
-.039
(.059)
.962
-.061
(.059)
.941
2001
-.159
(.058) **
.853
-.167
(.062) **
.847
-.144
(.064)*
.866
Party ID strength
in 1997
Weak
identifiers
.
.
.
.
Very strong
-2.454
(.777) **
.086
-2.477
(.846) **
.084
Fairly strong
-.753
(.304) *
.471
-.614
(.318)
.541
Good for one
class or all, 97
.329
(.315)
1.390
Good for one
class or all, 98
1.196
(.332) ***
3.307
Model Fit
Chi-Square
df
-2 Log
likelihood
73.930 ***
20
343.433
91.554 ***
22
325.808
109.343 ***
24
308.019
N = 510
PLEASE DO NOT QUOTE WITHOUT AUTHOR’S PERMISSION
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