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Table 6. Vote by Party Identification in the 2000 Presidential Election
Strong
Democrat
%
Not Very
Strong
Democrat
%
Ind.
Close to
Democrat
%
Ind.
%
Ind.
Close to
Republican
%
Not Very
Strong
Republican
%
Strong
Republican
%
Total
%
CA
χ
2(6)
=171
Pr = 0
Gore
96.06
86.96
94.44
60
0
27.78
5.56
74.65
N
122
60
17
6
0
5
2
212
Bush
3.94
13.04
5.56
40
100
72.22
94.44
25.35
N
5
9
1
4
6
13
34
72
FL
χ
2(6)
=203
Pr = 0
Gore
93.1
63.41
82.35
28
0
5.41
1.22
33.33
N
54
26
14
7
0
4
1
106
Bush
6.9
36.59
17.65
72
100
94.59
98.78
66.67
N
4
15
3
18
21
70
81
212
ILL
χ
2(6)
=112
Pr = 0
Gore
96.36
82.52
72.22
64.71
12.5
29.41
10.53
76.37
N
106
85
13
11
1
5
2
223
Bush
3.64
17.48
27.78
35.29
87.5
70.59
89.47
23.63
N
4
18
5
6
7
12
17
69
NY
χ
2(6)
=113
Pr = 0
Gore
96.61
94.85
100
66.67
0
36.36
27.78
87.55
N
114
92
16
8
0
4
5
239
Bush
3.39
5.15
0
33.33
100
63.64
72.22
12.45
N
4
5
0
4
1
7
13
34
TX
χ
2(6)
=103
Pr = 0
Gore
90.91
68.09
82.35
29.41
25
0
5.56
59.15
N
70
32
14
5
4
0
1
126
Bush
9.09
31.91
17.65
70.59
75
100
94.44
40.85
N
7
15
3
12
12
21
17
87
If our results are correct we should not see a lot of variation between the predicted
probabilities for each state and Table 6. The following table (Table 7) shows the results
of dividing each state’s predicted probabilities by the validated electoral results. A
number equal to 1 in Table 7 means that our model predicts the vote perfectly controlling
for partisanship. If the number is greater than 1 our model overstates the electoral results.
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