George Marcus at Williams College observed the election was “a referendum on which anxiety
was greater – fears about terrorism or economic trouble.”
21
Ultimately in a television age,
candidates must establish an image, or brand name, that attracts voters, and the “key to any
successful brand is trust,” which allows each voter to make a prediction about what to expect
from a candidate.
22
Bush and his campaign managers early on established a simple image of the
President as a decisive leader and they never wavered from that message. At the same time, the
Bush team was able define Kerry as indecisive (a “flip-flopper”), and the Kerry organization
never managed to create an image of their candidate that appealed to a majority of voters nor did
the Kerry team manage to seriously discredit Bush’s image.
23
George Carpenter at Northwestern
University explained “Trust is being able to predict someone’s behavior...Even though, I’m a
Democrat, I can see why people see Bush as more predictable, why they trust him more. It’s a lot
easier to predict someone’s behavior when they already are in that job.”
24
Image problems notwithstanding, it is difficult to defeat an incumbent president,
especially in war time. With advantages in time (four years to organize) and in money (over
$150 million), the Bush organization started from a much stronger position and was able to
solidify its support in many states well before the general election. As a consequence, the
Republicans could devote resources to states won by Gore in the 2000 election and thus reduce
the number of possible Electoral College votes Kerry could win. Though the Republicans
squeezed the electoral map on their opponents, fewer than 70 out of the nation’s 3,043 counties
shifted from Democrat to Republican, but those seventy made the difference. In the end,
American presidential contests come down to the Electoral College, a lesson the nation learned
in 2000.
HOMELAND SECURITY
Three years after the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States, significant
Convention