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Of Social Networks and Popular Rebellion
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Of Social Networks and Popular Rebellion
David A Siegel
Stanford Graduate School of Business
518 Memorial Way
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305
## email not listed ##
Prepared for delivery at the 2004 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association,
September 2 - September 5, 2004.
Copyright by the American Political Science Association.
Abstract
Extant models of popular rebellion, while insightful and intricate, have thus far
been unable to account both for the phenomenon’s general empirical regularities and its specific highly varied incarnations. I propose a dynamic model in which I merge abstracted individual behavior with aggregate institutions including social networks, oppressive government action, and the mass media in order to derive several testable implications regarding the interaction between the form of interpersonal connectivity and the likelihood and form of rebellion within a society. I find that the exact form of the social network is frequently of great importance in understanding the spread of rebellion, particularly in its relation to the strength of an oppressive state attempting to quell societal unrest. Networks that rely on a few highly-connected individuals for information transferal are found to be particularly susceptible to the depredations of an oppressive state, though this often means less bloodshed during the aborted social movement. A well-respected mass media can assuage this susceptibility somewhat, working most powerfully when it combines tightly-connected insular groups with information from heretofore unknown social spaces.
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Of Social Networks and Popular Rebellion
David A Siegel
Stanford Graduate School of Business
518 Memorial Way
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305
Prepared for delivery at the 2004 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association,
September 2 - September 5, 2004.
Copyright by the American Political Science Association.
Abstract
Extant models of popular rebellion, while insightful and intricate, have thus far
been unable to account both for the phenomenon’s general empirical regularities and its
specific highly varied incarnations. I propose a dynamic model in which I merge
abstracted individual behavior with aggregate institutions including social networks,
oppressive government action, and the mass media in order to derive several testable
implications regarding the interaction between the form of interpersonal connectivity and
the likelihood and form of rebellion within a society. I find that the exact form of the
social network is frequently of great importance in understanding the spread of rebellion,
particularly in its relation to the strength of an oppressive state attempting to quell
societal unrest. Networks that rely on a few highly-connected individuals for information
transferal are found to be particularly susceptible to the depredations of an oppressive
state, though this often means less bloodshed during the aborted social movement. A
well-respected mass media can assuage this susceptibility somewhat, working most
powerfully when it combines tightly-connected insular groups with information from
heretofore unknown social spaces.
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