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Candidate Equilibrium and the Behavioral Model of Voter Choice and Turnout: Theoretical Results and Empirical Tests

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Abstract:

We present theoretical results that when voters are motivated by policy distance and partisan loyalties, and voters are prepared to abstain from alienation, then office-seeking candidates’ equilibrium positions in two-candidate contests diverge, with each candidate presenting policies that reflect the beliefs of her partisan constituency. We report empirical tests on U.S. Senate elections which support the central predictions derived from our model: namely, that Senate candidates’ policy divergence from the mean state voter position increases with the size and the extremity of their state partisan constituencies, and, crucially, that candidates gain votes as they shift away from the center of the policy space, in the direction of their constituencies. Our analyses also uncover support for recent theories of policy competition put forward by Miller and Schofield, Moon, and Callander and Wilkie.

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candid (255), posit (157), partisan (139), 1 (123), d (121), 2 (97), voter (97), elect (97), parti (86), vote (80), democrat (75), mean (73), e (73), r (69), ideolog (62), constitu (60), state (58), em (56), model (54), polici (53), variabl (50),

Author's Keywords:

spatial models, equilibrium, alienation, indifference
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Name: American Political Science Association
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MLA Citation:

Adams, James. and Merrill, Samuel, III. "Candidate Equilibrium and the Behavioral Model of Voter Choice and Turnout: Theoretical Results and Empirical Tests" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hilton Chicago and the Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, IL, Sep 02, 2004 <Not Available>. 2009-05-26 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p59309_index.html>

APA Citation:

Adams, J. and Merrill, S. , 2004-09-02 "Candidate Equilibrium and the Behavioral Model of Voter Choice and Turnout: Theoretical Results and Empirical Tests" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hilton Chicago and the Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, IL Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-26 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p59309_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: We present theoretical results that when voters are motivated by policy distance and partisan loyalties, and voters are prepared to abstain from alienation, then office-seeking candidates’ equilibrium positions in two-candidate contests diverge, with each candidate presenting policies that reflect the beliefs of her partisan constituency. We report empirical tests on U.S. Senate elections which support the central predictions derived from our model: namely, that Senate candidates’ policy divergence from the mean state voter position increases with the size and the extremity of their state partisan constituencies, and, crucially, that candidates gain votes as they shift away from the center of the policy space, in the direction of their constituencies. Our analyses also uncover support for recent theories of policy competition put forward by Miller and Schofield, Moon, and Callander and Wilkie.

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Associated Document Available Political Research Online

Document Type: .PDF
Page count: 41
Word count: 11196
Text sample:
Candidate Equilibrium and the Behavioral Model of Voter Choice and Turnout: Theoretical Results and an Empirical Test By James Adams and Samuel Merrill III Abstract We present theoretical results that when voters are motivated by policy distance and partisan loyalties and voters are prepared to abstain from alienation then office- seeking candidates' equilibrium positions in two-candidate contests diverge with each candidate presenting policies that reflect the beliefs of her partisan constituency. We re- port empirical tests on U.S. Senate
partisans' ideology 40 Figure A.1. Nash equilibrium spatial positions of candidates for the turnout model as the policy salience parameter a varies from 0 to 0.2. Spatial locations of candidates at 5 4.5 equilibrium 4 3.5 3 0 0. 05 0. 1 0. 15 0.2 Policy salience parameter a 41


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