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Identity and Conflict in Nigeria's Niger Delta: New Evidence from Attitude Surveys
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Abstract
What is the relationship between communal identity, economic deprivation, and political
behavior? When do ethnic inequalities lead to polarization and violence? How does political democracy influence identity and political participation? In order to understand the complex interplay of identity, inequality, participation, and political regimes, we need better knowledge of the subjective perspectives of minority communities, the factors affecting their choice of political strategies, and the reasons for particular types of collective action. This paper examines public attitudes and participation in the Niger Delta of Nigeria, a major site of contentious ethnic mobilization and conflict. The data is drawn from three Afrobarometer surveys, providing a time series from a large and uniquely representative sample of citizens from the Delta region. There are three preliminary findings, based upon descriptive statistics and partial event analysis. The pattern of attitudes in Niger Delta, when situated within events, strongly suggests a constructivist account of identity formation. Subjective identities are volatile, and shifts in identity can be explained with reference to political opportunities and economic inducements. Second, with regard to the discourse of grievance in the Niger Delta, it is clear that parochial ethnic identities predominate, rather than an overarching regional identity. Ethnic identities are animated by particular challenges and interests. Third, regime type does not adequately account for changes in identity and behavior. Democratic governance can reduce communal polarization when the political system furnishes desired collective goods. When citizens perceive that the system has failed to provide essential political or economic goods, they are more likely to gravitate to communal identities and to pursue contentious mobilization.
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1
Abstract
What is the relationship between communal identity, economic deprivation, and political
behavior? When do ethnic inequalities lead to polarization and violence? How does political
democracy influence identity and political participation? In order to understand the complex
interplay of identity, inequality, participation, and political regimes, we need better knowledge of
the subjective perspectives of minority communities, the factors affecting their choice of political
strategies, and the reasons for particular types of collective action. This paper examines public
attitudes and participation in the Niger Delta of Nigeria, a major site of contentious ethnic
mobilization and conflict. The data is drawn from three Afrobarometer surveys, providing a time
series from a large and uniquely representative sample of citizens from the Delta region. There
are three preliminary findings, based upon descriptive statistics and partial event analysis. The
pattern of attitudes in Niger Delta, when situated within events, strongly suggests a constructivist
account of identity formation. Subjective identities are volatile, and shifts in identity can be
explained with reference to political opportunities and economic inducements. Second, with
regard to the discourse of grievance in the Niger Delta, it is clear that parochial ethnic identities
predominate, rather than an overarching regional identity. Ethnic identities are animated by
particular challenges and interests. Third, regime type does not adequately account for changes
in identity and behavior. Democratic governance can reduce communal polarization when the
political system furnishes desired collective goods. When citizens perceive that the system has
failed to provide essential political or economic goods, they are more likely to gravitate to
communal identities and to pursue contentious mobilization.
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