4 3
For the Bush Administration’s first public discussion of this, see New York Times, August 17, 2004, p.
A6. See also Kurt Campbell and Celeste Johnson Ward, “New Battle Stations?” Fore ign Affairs, Vol. 82,
No. 5 (September/October 2003), pp. 95-103.
4 4
Aside from strategic worries, South Korea understands the economic implications of the American
withdrawal. F or ex amp le, in response to cha nges in A meric an po licy, the So uth K orea n defe nse m inistry is
seeking a 13% increase in the 2005 budget request. “U.S. troop withdrawals from South Korea,” IISS
Strate gic C om me nts, Vo l. 10, Issu e 5 (J une 2 004 ). Th e adv antage s to othe r cou ntries of U .S. is
ackn owledged by P ape , who v ariou sly suggests that Jap an and Sou th Ko rea co uld ask all U.S . forces to
leave their territo ry and suggests they do not wa nt us to lea ve be cause the U .S. is a po tentially
indisp ensab le supp ort for th e status q uo in the region . See P ape , “Soft B alancing.”
19
interests and the need to bolster American power-projection capabilities.
43
Other
countries mentioned by American policymakers as sites for future bases include India,
Australia, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, Senegal, Ghana,
Mali, and Sierra Leone.
In addition to the overall data, the diplomatic details of the foreign basing picture
run contrary to soft-balancing predictions. Most current host countries simply do not
want American forces to go. Despite occasionally hostile domestic opinion surveys, the
economic and strategic benefits of hosting American bases outweigh any purported
desire to make it more difficult for the United States to exercise power. The Philippines
asked the United States to leave Subic Bay in the 1990s – well before the emergence of
the Bush doctrine and invasion of Iraq – but that country has been angling for an
American return ever since. The United States recently announced its plan to withdraw
approximately 12, 500 troops from South Korea. The withdrawal is being resisted by
South Korea and it has, in fact, triggered widespread anxiety in South Korea about the
future of America’s security commitment toward the peninsula.
44
German defense
officials, as well as German businesses, are not happy about America’s plan to replace its
two Army divisions in Germany with a single light armored brigade and transfer a wing
of F-16 fighter jets from its base in Germany to the Incirlik Air Base in Turkey (which
Convention