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Giving Up the Bomb: In Search of a Model Describing States' Nuclear Behavior

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Abstract:

As the first nuclear century drew to a close, international relations scholars have paid increasing attention to the phenomenon of nuclear nonproliferation and nuclear reversal. Intuitively, the decision by states to relinquish the awesome power of nuclear weapons may appear puzzling as these arms traditionally have been thought to provide military might, political prestige and security. However, by the end of the 20th century, several states had opted for a voluntary renunciation of nuclear weapons in search of other national security alternatives. Three states in particular – Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan - offer a unique opportunity to study instances of nuclear reversal. A comparative analysis of the nuclear policies of the three post-Soviet states offers a possibility to theorize about the potential causal mechanisms that can lead to denuclearization. Although the ultimate outcome in each one of these three cases was the same – attainment of a nuclear-free status – the paths taken by each country varied substantially. The comparative examination of the different denuclearization paths will yield insights into the underlying causes of each state’s nuclear actions that, in turn, will illuminate some general implications of this recent experience for other nuclear fence sitters in different parts of the world.
Arguing against the conventional explanations of nuclear behavior propagated by neorealist as well as normative perspectives, the paper will introduce an explanatory model of nuclear reversal by non-great powers based upon the logic of “prudent realism”. Specifically, the model will test two related hypotheses with respect to states’ decision about renunciation of nuclear weapons. In combination, these two hypotheses constitute the causal mechanism of the nuclear reversal process. First, it will be suggested that nuclear decisions have something to do with the nature of a state’s relation with a regional hegemon. Second, it will be hypothesized that nuclear reversal hinges upon the considerations of short-term economic cost/benefit analysis as well as long-term economic prosperity considerations. The proposed model will incorporate international and domestic level analysis in order to uncover the specifics of the causal mechanism leading to a decision about nuclear reversal. These hypotheses will be tested on the three post-Soviet cases. To illustrate the generalizability of the model beyond the former Soviet region, the model will be tested on the case of South Africa in the early 1990s.

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nuclear (255), state (153), econom (96), weapon (88), ukrain (83), revers (83), soviet (76), secur (73), case (72), denuclear (70), polit (66), process (65), intern (65), p (64), russia (59), south (58), kazakhstan (55), belarus (47), region (46), post (42), relat (40),

Author's Keywords:

Nuclear reversal; former Soviet states
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MLA Citation:

Zaitseva, Maria. "Giving Up the Bomb: In Search of a Model Describing States' Nuclear Behavior" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hilton Chicago and the Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, IL, Sep 02, 2004 <Not Available>. 2009-05-26 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p60078_index.html>

APA Citation:

Zaitseva, M. , 2004-09-02 "Giving Up the Bomb: In Search of a Model Describing States' Nuclear Behavior" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hilton Chicago and the Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, IL Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-26 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p60078_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: As the first nuclear century drew to a close, international relations scholars have paid increasing attention to the phenomenon of nuclear nonproliferation and nuclear reversal. Intuitively, the decision by states to relinquish the awesome power of nuclear weapons may appear puzzling as these arms traditionally have been thought to provide military might, political prestige and security. However, by the end of the 20th century, several states had opted for a voluntary renunciation of nuclear weapons in search of other national security alternatives. Three states in particular – Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan - offer a unique opportunity to study instances of nuclear reversal. A comparative analysis of the nuclear policies of the three post-Soviet states offers a possibility to theorize about the potential causal mechanisms that can lead to denuclearization. Although the ultimate outcome in each one of these three cases was the same – attainment of a nuclear-free status – the paths taken by each country varied substantially. The comparative examination of the different denuclearization paths will yield insights into the underlying causes of each state’s nuclear actions that, in turn, will illuminate some general implications of this recent experience for other nuclear fence sitters in different parts of the world.
Arguing against the conventional explanations of nuclear behavior propagated by neorealist as well as normative perspectives, the paper will introduce an explanatory model of nuclear reversal by non-great powers based upon the logic of “prudent realism”. Specifically, the model will test two related hypotheses with respect to states’ decision about renunciation of nuclear weapons. In combination, these two hypotheses constitute the causal mechanism of the nuclear reversal process. First, it will be suggested that nuclear decisions have something to do with the nature of a state’s relation with a regional hegemon. Second, it will be hypothesized that nuclear reversal hinges upon the considerations of short-term economic cost/benefit analysis as well as long-term economic prosperity considerations. The proposed model will incorporate international and domestic level analysis in order to uncover the specifics of the causal mechanism leading to a decision about nuclear reversal. These hypotheses will be tested on the three post-Soviet cases. To illustrate the generalizability of the model beyond the former Soviet region, the model will be tested on the case of South Africa in the early 1990s.

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Document Type: .PDF
Page count: 47
Word count: 14144
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Giving Up the Bomb: In Search of a Model Describing States' Nuclear Behavior Maria Zaitseva Graduate Student Department of Government Cornell University Ithaca NY 14850 mnz2@cornell.edu Prepared for delivery at the 2004 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association September 2 ­ September 5 2004 Copyright by the American Political Science Association This is a rough draft. Please do not cite without the permission of the author.. 1 ABSTRACT As the first nuclear century drew to a close
Jan. pp. 17-39 Solingen Etel. 1994. "The Political Economy of Nuclear Restraint" International Security Vol. 19 Issue 2 pp. 126-169 Stumpf Waldo. 1995/96. "South Africa's Nuclear Weapons Program: From Deterrence to Dismantlement" Arms Control Today Vol. 25 Issue 10 Dec/Jan pp. 10-19 Tannenwald Nina. 1999. "The Nuclear Taboo: The United States and the Normative Basis of Nuclear Non-Use" International Organization Summer 53 3: 433-468 The Current Digest of the Post Soviet Press ­ various volumes Vasylenko Volodymyr. 1993. "Kiev


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