(Page 4 of 45) - A Diversionary Compliance Hypothesis of Nuclear Renunciation: The Case of South Africa authored by Cho, Sung-Ju.

crisis. An empirical study of the U.S. Presidents has shown that peace-promoting activity
indeed increased presidents’ approval ratings, however its diversionary use was absent.

This study attempts to show that the same diversionary use could be discovered in the
Third World countries where they have different political situations.

Second, the

hypothesis finds the major thrust of nuclear renunciation in the domestic politics where
external pressure has a supporting role. When the recent overwhelming uses of force
have yet to show promising results and the policymakers seem to have difficulty
understanding their limitations, this study suggests an alternative perspective for the
policymakers whose aim is “hegemonic socialization.”

In short, in terms of IR theory the opposite of diversionary war needs to be

explored more thoroughly as a realistic possibility, and as for policy implications,
inducing implosion is a better way of bringing about nuclear renunciation from the
nuclear ambitious states than using “carrot and stick.” Because external pressure only
hardens the weak states’ resistance by consolidating their internal cohesion, and because
renunciation based on “carrot and stick” can contain the danger of renunciation being an
instrumental adaptation rather than a genuine change,

utilizing their internal conflict

would be the best option to cause positive changes of their own.

In this paper the diversionary-compliance hypothesis will be tested on South

Africa by process tracing nearly fifty years of its nuclear history. South Africa’s nuclear
development will be divided into three periods: from 1945 to 1974, from 1975 to 1983,
and from 1984 to 1991. The end of the Second World War is a good starting point and
the years 1974/5 and 1983/4 became turning points for South Africa’s foreign relations
and domestic politics. To make each period fit for hypothesis testing, analyses will focus
on three aspects: South Africa’s nuclear development, domestic political and economic
situations, and foreign relations regarding nuclear nonproliferation especially with the
U.S. under regional and global security context. Events are analyzed strictly in a
chronological order to capture the variance of the three aspects over time.

1945-1974: PLANTING THE ATOMIC SEED

From the end of the Second World War to 1974, South Africa’s nuclear development
program first began and cruised on favorable circumstances. South Africa’s need for

David T. Burbach, “Wagging the Doves? Peace-Promoting Actions as a Source of Presidential

Support,” APSA Conference Paper, Philadelphia, 2003.

For Third World characteristics, see Stephen D. Krasner, Structural Conflict: The Third World

Against Global Liberalism (Berkeley: University of California, 1985); “Third World Vulnerabilities and
Global Negotiations,” Review of International Studies, Vol. 9, No. 4 (October 1983), pp. 235-49; Brian L.
Job, ed., The Insecurity Dilemma: National Security of Third World States (Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1992);
Stephanie G. Neuman, ed., International Relations Theory and the Third World (New York: St. Martin’s,
1998); Carlos Escude, Foreign Policy Theory in Menem’s Argentina (Gainesville: University Press of
Florida, 1997), esp. pp. 138-9.

G. John Ikenberry and Charles A. Kupchan, “Socialization and Hegemonic Power,”

InternationalOrganization, Vol. 44, No. 3 (Summer 1990), pp. 283-315. Complying for the benefit of
social reward is a process of international socialization. Kenneth Waltz suggested some of the ways
socialization occur: emulation for deviation, praise for behavior that conforms to group norms, and ridicule
for deviation. Theory of International Politics (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1979), pp. 75-6.

An example can be the Geneva Framework Agreement with North Korea in 1994.