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A Diversionary Compliance Hypothesis of Nuclear Renunciation: The Case of South Africa
Unformatted Document Text:  2. Norm Pressure Results: Year Norm Pressure Score Incidents (basis) 1975 6 US stopped fuel supply (but for apartheid reason) 1976 5 Nuclear reactor sales deal called off (apartheid) 1977 5 Expelled from IAEA Board of Governors, Carter threaten to terminate HEU supply, (mandatory arms embargo on apartheid) 1978 6 NNP act enacted, Ambassador Smith advise NPT join, fuel embargo 1979 5 Rejected of IAEA key activities 1980 6 Fuel embargo 1981 3 & 2 Botha meet Haig, US allow secret fuel supply 1982 5 & 2 Nuclear sales rejected, but dual end uses allowed 1983 1 Secretly hire US technicians 1984 1 Secretly hire US technicians 1985 6 Exports embargo, UN nuclear embargo 1986 6 & 2 (AAAct,) but allow uranium enrichment in US 1987 3 Z-plant negotiation bare fruit of Botha’s public announcement 1988 4 Attempt at expelling from IAEA failed 1989 1990 Operationalization: Six Levels of Norm Pressure: Level Indicators of Norm Pressure Example 6 High Uni/multi-lateral International Sanctions Mandatory & Voluntary Embargos NNP act HEU embargo 5 Ostracizing from International Institutions Break off of nuclear deals IAEA board of governors Terminating HEU supply 4 Rhetorical threat Diplomatic pressure Threatening to terminate HEU supply 3 Diplomatic inducement & negotiation Requesting NPT signature Requesting IAEA inspections 2 Proclamation of nuclear nonproliferation Relaxing of sanction NPT establishment Allowing sale of banned items 1 Low Nuclear collaboration Providing technical services Making nuclear sales deal “Atoms for Peace” 45

Authors: Cho, Sung-Ju.
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2. Norm Pressure
Results:
Year
Norm
Pressure
Score
Incidents (basis)
1975
6
US stopped fuel supply (but for apartheid reason)
1976
5
Nuclear reactor sales deal called off (apartheid)
1977
5
Expelled from IAEA Board of Governors, Carter threaten to terminate
HEU supply, (mandatory arms embargo on apartheid)
1978
6
NNP act enacted, Ambassador Smith advise NPT join, fuel embargo
1979
5
Rejected of IAEA key activities
1980 6 Fuel
embargo
1981
3 & 2
Botha meet Haig, US allow secret fuel supply
1982
5 & 2
Nuclear sales rejected, but dual end uses allowed
1983
1
Secretly hire US technicians
1984
1
Secretly hire US technicians
1985
6
Exports embargo, UN nuclear embargo
1986
6 & 2
(AAAct,) but allow uranium enrichment in US
1987
3
Z-plant negotiation bare fruit of Botha’s public announcement
1988
4
Attempt at expelling from IAEA failed
1989
1990

Operationalization: Six Levels of Norm Pressure:
Level
Indicators of Norm Pressure
Example
6
High
Uni/multi-lateral International Sanctions
Mandatory & Voluntary Embargos
NNP act
HEU embargo
5
Ostracizing from International Institutions
Break off of nuclear deals
IAEA board of governors
Terminating HEU supply
4

Rhetorical threat
Diplomatic pressure
Threatening to terminate HEU
supply
3

Diplomatic inducement & negotiation
Requesting NPT signature
Requesting IAEA inspections
2
Proclamation of nuclear nonproliferation
Relaxing of sanction
NPT establishment
Allowing sale of banned items
1
Low

Nuclear collaboration
Providing technical services
Making nuclear sales deal
“Atoms for Peace”
45


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