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Giving Up the Bomb: In Search of a Model Describing States' Nuclear Behavior
Unformatted Document Text:  19 nuclear reversal process, commenced roughly in the spring of 1992 and came to an end more than a year later, in the fall of 1993. The last period led up to the decision to enter into the Trilateral Agreement in January of 1994 and to remove all remaining nuclear weapons from Ukrainian territory. What were some of the key issues and concerns during each of these periods? The idealism phase witnessed a combination of naive expectations about sovereignty and international recognition, as well as a determination to attain a nuclear- free status as per the anti-nuclear consensus discussed above 48 . At the December 1991 summit on CIS 49 formation, Ukraine, along with Belarus and Kazakhstan, pledged to withdraw tactical nuclear weapons from their territories by the following summer 50 . The premature expectation of Ukrainians that their country would be welcomed into the international community and granted instant recognition as soon as independence was declared bode well for the policy of nuclear renunciation. For its part, Russia was content with achieving its goal of denuclearizing the former Soviet republics without committing too many pledges or resources to reach that goal. The situation changed dramatically in late 1991 and early 1992 as the relations between Moscow and Kiev deteriorated markedly and as Ukrainian politicians grew increasingly determined to make sure that Ukraine was getting something in return for its nuclear weapons. The points of contention between Moscow and Kiev were diverse and complex 51 . Kiev was also growing increasingly frustrated with the West, which seemed 48 The presence of this consensus largely addresses the question of the impetus behind Ukraine’s desire to undertake nuclear reversal. 49 Commonwealth of Independent States 50 Reiss (1995a), p. 93 51 they included, among other things, disputes over the fate of the Black Sea Fleet as well as the military port at Sevastopol, the outstanding issue of Ukraine’s debts to Russia for energy deliveries, as well as

Authors: Zaitseva, Maria.
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19
nuclear reversal process, commenced roughly in the spring of 1992 and came to an end
more than a year later, in the fall of 1993. The last period led up to the decision to enter
into the Trilateral Agreement in January of 1994 and to remove all remaining nuclear
weapons from Ukrainian territory. What were some of the key issues and concerns during
each of these periods?
The idealism phase witnessed a combination of naive expectations about
sovereignty and international recognition, as well as a determination to attain a nuclear-
free status as per the anti-nuclear consensus discussed above
48
. At the December 1991
summit on CIS
49
formation, Ukraine, along with Belarus and Kazakhstan, pledged to
withdraw tactical nuclear weapons from their territories by the following summer
50
. The
premature expectation of Ukrainians that their country would be welcomed into the
international community and granted instant recognition as soon as independence was
declared bode well for the policy of nuclear renunciation. For its part, Russia was content
with achieving its goal of denuclearizing the former Soviet republics without committing
too many pledges or resources to reach that goal.
The situation changed dramatically in late 1991 and early 1992 as the relations
between Moscow and Kiev deteriorated markedly and as Ukrainian politicians grew
increasingly determined to make sure that Ukraine was getting something in return for its
nuclear weapons. The points of contention between Moscow and Kiev were diverse and
complex
51
. Kiev was also growing increasingly frustrated with the West, which seemed
48
The presence of this consensus largely addresses the question of the impetus behind Ukraine’s desire to
undertake nuclear reversal.
49
Commonwealth of Independent States
50
Reiss (1995a), p. 93
51
they included, among other things, disputes over the fate of the Black Sea Fleet as well as the military
port at Sevastopol, the outstanding issue of Ukraine’s debts to Russia for energy deliveries, as well as


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