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Giving Up the Bomb: In Search of a Model Describing States' Nuclear Behavior
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ABSTRACT
As the first nuclear century drew to a close, international relations scholars have
paid increasing attention to the phenomenon of nuclear nonproliferation and nuclear reversal. Intuitively, the decision by states to relinquish the awesome power of nuclear weapons may appear puzzling as these arms traditionally have been thought to provide military might, political prestige and security. However, by the end of the 20
th
century,
several states had opted for a voluntary renunciation of nuclear weapons in search of other national security alternatives. Three states in particular – Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan - offer a unique opportunity to study instances of nuclear reversal. A comparative analysis of the nuclear policies of the three post-Soviet states offers a possibility to theorize about the potential causal mechanisms that can lead to denuclearization. Although the ultimate outcome in each one of these three cases was the same – attainment of a nuclear-free status – the paths taken by each country varied substantially. The comparative examination of the different denuclearization paths will yield insights into the underlying causes of each state’s nuclear actions that, in turn, will illuminate some general implications of this recent experience for other nuclear fence sitters in different parts of the world.
Arguing against the conventional explanations of nuclear behavior propagated by
neorealist as well as normative perspectives, the paper will introduce an explanatory model of nuclear reversal by non-great powers based upon the logic of “prudent realism”. Specifically, the model will test two related hypotheses with respect to states’ decision about renunciation of nuclear weapons. In combination, these two hypotheses constitute the causal mechanism of the nuclear reversal process. First, it will be suggested that nuclear decisions have something to do with the nature of a state’s relation with a regional hegemon. Second, it will be hypothesized that nuclear reversal hinges upon the considerations of short-term economic cost/benefit analysis as well as long-term economic prosperity considerations. The proposed model will incorporate international and domestic level analysis in order to uncover the specifics of the causal mechanism leading to a decision about nuclear reversal. These hypotheses will be tested on the three post-Soviet cases. To illustrate the generalizability of the model beyond the former Soviet region, the model will be tested on the case of South Africa in the early 1990s.
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| | Authors: Zaitseva, Maria. |
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2
ABSTRACT
As the first nuclear century drew to a close, international relations scholars have
paid increasing attention to the phenomenon of nuclear nonproliferation and nuclear
reversal. Intuitively, the decision by states to relinquish the awesome power of nuclear
weapons may appear puzzling as these arms traditionally have been thought to provide
military might, political prestige and security. However, by the end of the 20
th
century,
several states had opted for a voluntary renunciation of nuclear weapons in search of
other national security alternatives. Three states in particular – Ukraine, Belarus and
Kazakhstan - offer a unique opportunity to study instances of nuclear reversal. A
comparative analysis of the nuclear policies of the three post-Soviet states offers a
possibility to theorize about the potential causal mechanisms that can lead to
denuclearization. Although the ultimate outcome in each one of these three cases was the
same – attainment of a nuclear-free status – the paths taken by each country varied
substantially. The comparative examination of the different denuclearization paths will
yield insights into the underlying causes of each state’s nuclear actions that, in turn, will
illuminate some general implications of this recent experience for other nuclear fence
sitters in different parts of the world.
Arguing against the conventional explanations of nuclear behavior propagated by
neorealist as well as normative perspectives, the paper will introduce an explanatory
model of nuclear reversal by non-great powers based upon the logic of “prudent realism”.
Specifically, the model will test two related hypotheses with respect to states’ decision
about renunciation of nuclear weapons. In combination, these two hypotheses constitute
the causal mechanism of the nuclear reversal process. First, it will be suggested that
nuclear decisions have something to do with the nature of a state’s relation with a
regional hegemon. Second, it will be hypothesized that nuclear reversal hinges upon the
considerations of short-term economic cost/benefit analysis as well as long-term
economic prosperity considerations. The proposed model will incorporate international
and domestic level analysis in order to uncover the specifics of the causal mechanism
leading to a decision about nuclear reversal. These hypotheses will be tested on the three
post-Soviet cases. To illustrate the generalizability of the model beyond the former Soviet
region, the model will be tested on the case of South Africa in the early 1990s.
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