De Maio
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such as those in Bosnia, Kuwait, and Rwanda are known (and increasingly knowable, given the
rapidly contracting nature of global interactions), why were they not prevented? No simple
answer is possible, yet a partial explanation may lie in the examination of how tools like early
warning systems were used in three conflict situations and what conditions for successful
preventive diplomacy were present (or absent) in these cases.
Case Studies
Context and Methodology
I now turn my examination towards the conditions under which preventive diplomacy can
be successful by conducting a careful comparative case study of three conflicts in sub-Saharan
Africa: the Somali civil war, the Rwandan genocide, and the KwaZulu-Natal civil conflict in
South Africa.
To reduce some of the complexity and achieve an ordered account of the main factors
affecting the success or failure of conflict prevention, it is important to compare pairs or sets of
countries which share similar global and national-level challenges, but differ on whether
preventive diplomacy managed to thwart the outbreak or escalation of violence or failed despite
efforts made towards that end.
1
I have chosen cases that share similar historical and regional
challenges, but whose conflict trajectories when compared may reveal certain features and
strategies associated with their differing outcomes. This empirically-informed and structured
comparison of the cases selected is meant to identify why preventive diplomacy strategies led to
peaceful resolution in one case and why they were ineffective in averting violence in the other
two.
1
My comparison of the three countries is not intended to over-simplify or reduce the importance of the unique set of issues that
characterize each nation.
Convention