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Bargaining in the Shadow of War: Bias and Coercion in U.S. Mediation, 1945-1990

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This paper makes two contributions to the literature on international mediation. First, I test whether a superpower’s affinity for actors enmeshed in a foreign crisis affects its choice to remain inactive in the crisis, mediate, or coerce one of the adversaries into an agreement. Next, I study the effect of the superpower’s affinity on the outcome of the crisis. Relying on a formal model and an analysis of U.S. involvement in 179 bilateral crises from 1945 to 1990, I find evidence that successful mediation is most likely when the superpower significantly favors a single crisis actor and disfavors the other. Since these are also the factors I postulate influence a state’s decision to coerce a settlement, I conclude it is useful to understand coercion and mediation not as substitute choices available to a biased superpower, but as two consecutive steps in an essentially coercive process. In this process, the biased superpower always attempts to facilitate first, and only resorts to coercion if facilitation fails.

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facilit (166), state (157), bias (129), mediat (126), unit (105), coercion (92), u.s (82), 1 (75), superpow (68), b (67), disput (62), crisi (61), conflict (50), actor (49), one (49), war (46), variabl (45), settlement (44), x (39), 2 (38), intern (38),
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Favretto, Katja. "Bargaining in the Shadow of War: Bias and Coercion in U.S. Mediation, 1945-1990" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hilton Chicago and the Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, IL, Sep 02, 2004 <Not Available>. 2009-05-26 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p60107_index.html>

APA Citation:

Favretto, K. , 2004-09-02 "Bargaining in the Shadow of War: Bias and Coercion in U.S. Mediation, 1945-1990" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hilton Chicago and the Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, IL Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-26 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p60107_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
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Abstract: This paper makes two contributions to the literature on international mediation. First, I test whether a superpower’s affinity for actors enmeshed in a foreign crisis affects its choice to remain inactive in the crisis, mediate, or coerce one of the adversaries into an agreement. Next, I study the effect of the superpower’s affinity on the outcome of the crisis. Relying on a formal model and an analysis of U.S. involvement in 179 bilateral crises from 1945 to 1990, I find evidence that successful mediation is most likely when the superpower significantly favors a single crisis actor and disfavors the other. Since these are also the factors I postulate influence a state’s decision to coerce a settlement, I conclude it is useful to understand coercion and mediation not as substitute choices available to a biased superpower, but as two consecutive steps in an essentially coercive process. In this process, the biased superpower always attempts to facilitate first, and only resorts to coercion if facilitation fails.

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Document Type: .pdf
Page count: 40
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Bargaining in the Shadow of War: Bias and Coercion in U.S. Mediation 1945-19901 Katja I. Favretto2 Department of Political Science University of California Los Angeles 4289 Bunche Hall Los Angeles California 90095 favretto@ucla.edu WORK IN PROGRESS Comments Welcome Abstract This paper makes two contributions to the literature on international mediation. First I test whether a superpower's affinity for actors enmeshed in a foreign crisis affects its choice to remain inactive in the crisis mediate or coerce one of the
Negotiators Transformed the World's Toughest Post-Cold War Conflicts. San Francisco CA: Jossey-Bass. Wehr Paul and John Paul Lederach. 1991. Mediating Conflict in Central America. Journal of Peace Research. 28(1). Wilkenfeld et al. 2003. Mediating International Crises: Cross-National and Experimental Perspectives. Journal of Conflict Resolution. 47(3). Young Oran. 1967. The Intermediaries: Third Parties in International Crises. Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press. Young Peyton H. ed. 1991. Negotiation Analysis. Ann Arbor MI: The University of Michigan Press. Zartman William I. ed.


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