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The relationship between bias and the content of U.S. participation in the crises is less
conclusive. Figures 3 and 4 represent 100 simulated outcome probabilities as functions of
results is a “ternary plot” or “triplot” (see Katz and King 1999, King et al 2000, and Cox
1998). In the diagram, the probabilities of inaction, facilitation and coercion are plotted on the
left, right and bottom sides of an equilateral triangle. Each variable takes on values between 0
and 1, and the sum of the three variables equals 1. I add “win lines” to the plot that divide the
triangle into three regions and indicate which outcome probability is greater than the other
two.
Probability of inaction
Probability of coercion
Probability of facilitation
Figure 2. Simulated outcome probabilities as a function of minimum bias
Minimum bias = min
Minimum bias = max
As shown in Figure 2, simulation results reveal that low values of minimum bias
correspond to a 0.93 probability of U.S. inaction, while high values of minimum bias indicate
the most likely outcome is U.S. facilitation. This result supports Hypothesis 1, which predicts
U.S. facilitation in salient crises—that is, in crises characterized by high values of minimum
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Simulation was performed using CLARIFY (see King at al 2000).
Convention