(Page 19 of 28) - Reaching for the Stars: Cooperation after Interstate War authored by Bayer, Resat.

inconceivable at the turn of the last century. In addition, many dyads that appeared to
leave one dispute only to prepare for another dispute have moved out of such a pattern of
interaction.

More democratic dyads tend to make the transition to the highest level of peace

more readily than other dyads, which are less democratic. While these results show the
positive side of democracy, the international community needs to be nonetheless vigilant
because more democratic dyads are not particularly cooperative at the lowest level of
peace. This could be leaders in more democratic societies find it harder to leave jobs
half-finished given that they can expect their constituencies to hold them accountable for
changes in policy after having been convinced about the need to undertake force in the
first place against a side that was depicted as particularly threatening. In this regard, the
results give support to my arguments on democracy and suggest that more work on
domestic regimes and peace is required.

Additional security concerns for either of the two former belligerents can result in

reconciliation. Thus, when confronted with conflict between two states, the international
community needs to take a holistic approach and be much more creative when it comes to
conflict management and resolution. At times, it might be discovered that something
good can come out of this confrontation even if it is not in this dyad but in another.

While there is no guarantee for improved relations, the results suggest that the

following, for the most part, play a conducive role: level of democracy, conflict with
third parties, imposed settlement, realization of common interests, common IGO
membership, and leadership change. Recent conflict, universalism and closeness to
major powers play lesser roles. Territorial exchanges, military costs, duration of
regimes, civilization membership, and change in relative power are found to play, for the
most part, negligible roles in the samples analyzed here. Distance is associated more
with decreasing the prospects of higher levels of peace. Needless to say, the context
makes a big difference in the chances of further reconciliation even with these factors.
Thus, it is central to bear in mind the level of peace occupied by the protagonists. While
understanding international conflict is important, it is also necessary to study in greater
depth what is meant by peace, how best to capture it and how to explain it.

The results suggest that the influence of the international community in fostering

peace is uneven. Pairs of former belligerents that are in a particularly bellicose
relationship are unlikely to be persuaded by third parties under most circumstances. This
was shown with the results obtained for the international factors in pre-peace. Thus,
conflict management and resolution attempts by third parties are greatly aided by the two
protagonists accepting each other’s right to existence. The international community
needs to be prepared to see many of its policies ultimately fail when it comes to dealing
with pairs of states in pre-peace.

This research did not take into consideration conflict management techniques,

such as mediation efforts, to see how they impact the chances of reconciliation. Given
that the international community is increasingly relying upon such techniques, with
varying levels of success, there are several advantages of studying them in relation to
former belligerents. Specifically, studying various conflict management techniques at the
different levels can have practical policy implications and lead to potentially more
effective third party participation.