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Reaching for the Stars: Cooperation after Interstate War
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AbstractHow do democracy and external security concerns influence interstate reconciliation?This study examines the prospects of moving from a lower stage of peace to a higherstage of peace among former belligerents. I identify three categories of peace: pre-peace,negative peace, and positive peace. Specifically, I maintain that the effects of democracyand external security will have different effects on the prospects of interstatereconciliation based on what level of peace they are occurring at. I control for severalother factors here that capture the effect of the last war, interest similarity, internationalfactors, domestic politics, past conflict and opportunity factors. I test my argumentsusing duration analysis on a dataset that contains information on all former belligerentssince 1816. The results give support to my contention that what matters at one stage willnot necessarily have the same impact at another. In addition, it is found that many dyadsmove out of the lowest level of relations but that states find it rather hard to reach thehighest level of peace. The results also show that both democracy and external securityconsiderations do contribute to the highest level of peace being attained but the story ismore complicated when it comes to leaving the lowest level of peace.
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Abstract
How do democracy and external security concerns influence interstate reconciliation?
This study examines the prospects of moving from a lower stage of peace to a higher
stage of peace among former belligerents. I identify three categories of peace: pre-peace,
negative peace, and positive peace. Specifically, I maintain that the effects of democracy
and external security will have different effects on the prospects of interstate
reconciliation based on what level of peace they are occurring at. I control for several
other factors here that capture the effect of the last war, interest similarity, international
factors, domestic politics, past conflict and opportunity factors. I test my arguments
using duration analysis on a dataset that contains information on all former belligerents
since 1816. The results give support to my contention that what matters at one stage will
not necessarily have the same impact at another. In addition, it is found that many dyads
move out of the lowest level of relations but that states find it rather hard to reach the
highest level of peace. The results also show that both democracy and external security
considerations do contribute to the highest level of peace being attained but the story is
more complicated when it comes to leaving the lowest level of peace.
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