28
Table 3: Systemic Summary Statistics
Variable
Obs Mean
Std.
Dev. Min
Max
MAJOR POWER SUBSYSTEM
Total Trade
123
240684.4 575967.3 6101.54
3559994
Trade Logged
123
10.6416
1.705304 8.716296 15.08527
Number of Major Powers
123
6.073171 1.153546 4
8
Log Trade (Divided by Major Powers) 123 1.842836 .5608752 1.158224 2.901041
Hegemonic Power
123
1.945058 .5535301 .8081366 2.746194
Major Power GDP (Logged)
123
14.38122 1.172653 12.49139 16.59449
Major Power Population (Logged)
123
13.07987 .8935515 11.71981 14.5183
Annual Major Power War Participants
123
.5121951 1.189888 0
7
World Wars
123
.097561
.2979337 0
1
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM
Total Trade
123
718325.5 1592571
5377.84
6977318
Trade Logged
123
11.30446 2.022965 8.590042 15.75817
Number of States
123
77.38211 44.76963 33
181
Log Trade (Divided by All States)
123
1.963828 .6378711 1.18162
3.146505
Hegemonic Power
123
1.945058 .5535301 .8081366 2.746194
World GDP (Logged)
123
14.84006 1.242217 12.90667 16.99883
World Population (Logged)
123
13.95184 .9760724 12.28436 15.36481
Annual Major Power War Participants
123
.5121951 1.189888 0
7
World Wars
123
.097561
.2979337 0
1
Systemic Findings
Table 4 presents the results of three (3) ARIMA models: 1) the hegemonic power only or “naked”
model; 2) the basic gravity model; and 3) the full model including hegemonic power, the gravity model
components, and the controls for major power war and World Wars. These results indicate that hegemonic
power has no statistically significant effect on the indicator for aggregate trade in the international system.
This finding supports Conybeare’s (1983) and McKeown’s (1991) contention that hegemony has no
meaningful covariation with aggregate global trade. Having believed that previous theorists had mis-
specified and poorly operationalized hegemony, we anticipated a positive, statistically significant
relationship that is not evident. Based on these results, it seems reasonable to conclude that the structure of
the international trading system does not move in lockstep with changes in the power of the hegemon.