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Effects of Local News on Political Representation
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0
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0.6
0.8
1
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0.4
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Low mediaHigh media
Probability
of
electing
Republican
M C
Republican presidential vote at district level
Arnold media measure; 187 cases in 1994
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0.2
0.4
0.6
LowmediaHighmedia
Republican presidential vote at district level
Market structure media measure; cases 1988-94
The graphs, based on average values of the control variables, extend only into regions in which there are significant numbers of actual cases. The results strongly support expectations – candidates of both parties are better able to invade enemy turf where media market structure is conducive to the diffusion of political information. Table 4 adds little to this discussion. As in Table 3, a hazard model argument can justify the grouping of cases into a pooled estimate. For the sake of interest, we use shorter time periods in order to check for temporal trends. Given the standard errors of the estimates, we are reluctant to make much of the temporal effects that seem to exist -- with one exception. In the period after the Republican takeover of the House in 1994, the b3 coefficient collapses. If this collapse is sustained in future elections, it would indicate that much of the media’s moderating effect has subsided and that the high partisanship of the current period is likely to continue or intensify. But it is too soon to reach this conclusion. If, as our results indicate, extremism leads to defeat and to difficulty in invading enemy territory, and if, as earlier results showed, Republicans have been less willing to compromise on ideology, the reader may wonder how the Republicans gained a majority in Congress in 1994. The answer is that they managed, in a process that lies outside the
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| | Authors: Cohen, Marty., Noel, Hans. and Zaller, John. |
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19
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Low media
High media
Probability
of
electing
Republican
M C
Republican presidential vote at district level
Arnold media measure; 187 cases in 1994
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0.2
0.4
0.6
Low
media
High
media
Republican presidential vote at district level
Market structure media measure; cases 1988-94
The graphs, based on average values of the control variables, extend only into regions in
which there are significant numbers of actual cases. The results strongly support
expectations – candidates of both parties are better able to invade enemy turf where
media market structure is conducive to the diffusion of political information.
Table 4 adds little to this discussion. As in Table 3, a hazard model argument can justify
the grouping of cases into a pooled estimate. For the sake of interest, we use shorter time
periods in order to check for temporal trends. Given the standard errors of the estimates,
we are reluctant to make much of the temporal effects that seem to exist -- with one
exception. In the period after the Republican takeover of the House in 1994, the b3
coefficient collapses. If this collapse is sustained in future elections, it would indicate
that much of the media’s moderating effect has subsided and that the high partisanship of
the current period is likely to continue or intensify. But it is too soon to reach this
conclusion.
If, as our results indicate, extremism leads to defeat and to difficulty in invading enemy
territory, and if, as earlier results showed, Republicans have been less willing to
compromise on ideology, the reader may wonder how the Republicans gained a majority
in Congress in 1994. The answer is that they managed, in a process that lies outside the
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