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Effects of Local News on Political Representation
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important distinctions in the variance (Achen 1977. 1978). However, ordinary least squares regression may be no better, because the relationship may not be linear. There should be some kind of positive relationship between the two variables, but of what form? Moreover, what kind of relationship do you get when MCs are not being representative? Is it just noise, or are they systematically representative of something else? We will now attempt to answer these questions by considering two theoretical views of representation. The most common view may be that representatives should be “delegates” who follow the opinions of their constituents as closely as possible. Given the likely existence of disagreement among voters within districts, a representative cannot obey the wishes of every single voter. But he ought, with effort, to be able to stay close to the center of voter opinion in his district, in which case there ought to be a roughly linear relationship between the direction of district opinion and the thrust of an MC’s voting record. Thus, the normatively expected relationship between district opinion and representative behavior ought to look something like the following:
0
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40
60
80
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
Average district op inion on issue X
Roll callvotes ofM C onIssue X
Figure 1. Idealized pattern of delegate representation
Each point on this graph represents a particular representative. If, as is the case in this paper, we are dealing with Members of Congress, we may label each point an MC. As a further labeling convenience, we may assume that voter preference for X varies between 0 and 100, and that MCs may support levels of X that vary between 0 and 100. Given these simplifications, the graph shows a situation of perfect delegation from voters to representatives, because the level of MC support for X rises in strict linear fashion from 0 to 100 as voter support for X likewise rises from 0 to 100. A second model of representation is the responsible party model. Under this theory, favored by a task force of the American Political Science Association (1950), parties formulate coherent political programs and voters choose representatives who are
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| | Authors: Cohen, Marty., Noel, Hans. and Zaller, John. |
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3
important distinctions in the variance (Achen 1977. 1978). However, ordinary least
squares regression may be no better, because the relationship may not be linear. There
should be some kind of positive relationship between the two variables, but of what
form? Moreover, what kind of relationship do you get when MCs are not being
representative? Is it just noise, or are they systematically representative of something
else? We will now attempt to answer these questions by considering two theoretical
views of representation.
The most common view may be that representatives should be “delegates” who follow
the opinions of their constituents as closely as possible. Given the likely existence of
disagreement among voters within districts, a representative cannot obey the wishes of
every single voter. But he ought, with effort, to be able to stay close to the center of voter
opinion in his district, in which case there ought to be a roughly linear relationship
between the direction of district opinion and the thrust of an MC’s voting record. Thus,
the normatively expected relationship between district opinion and representative
behavior ought to look something like the following:
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
Average district op inion on issue X
Roll call
votes of
M C on
Issue X
Figure 1. Idealized pattern of delegate representation
Each point on this graph represents a particular representative. If, as is the case in this
paper, we are dealing with Members of Congress, we may label each point an MC. As a
further labeling convenience, we may assume that voter preference for X varies between
0 and 100, and that MCs may support levels of X that vary between 0 and 100. Given
these simplifications, the graph shows a situation of perfect delegation from voters to
representatives, because the level of MC support for X rises in strict linear fashion from 0
to 100 as voter support for X likewise rises from 0 to 100.
A second model of representation is the responsible party model. Under this theory,
favored by a task force of the American Political Science Association (1950), parties
formulate coherent political programs and voters choose representatives who are
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