Returning to the 1994 example, voters in one rural district might have ignored the
Democrats’ assault weapons ban because their incumbent was weakly challenged; in
another, the issue might have been the turning point of a competitive race; and in still a
third, the race might have been competitive but hinged on an unrelated issue such as farm
subsidies. Indeed, there is some support for this “priming” idea in the literature on
campaign effects (Jacobson and Kernell 1990, Johnston, et al. 1992, Ansolabehere &
Iyengar 1995, Hammond & Humes 1995). It is a dynamic that should be explored in
greater detail.
The results presented here also provide no insight into what the national tide
might be. After all, it is rather mysterious how national politics could play such a central
role and yet be so independent from local campaign dynamics. The null hypothesis
accords with the way we tend to speak of congressional elections. Analysts often speak
of challengers using a national issue to their advantage, and of a party searching for such
an issue in the hopes that it can be exploited in individual races. It is said that without
such an issue, the election amounts to “trench warfare,” with challengers in individual
races looking for issues that may apply only to their own campaign. But the results in
Table 2 suggest something of a national tide was present in “trench warfare” years such
as 1986 and 1978, while the party favored by national tides rarely ever receives extra
traction from its challenger spending. Elections differ in degree, not kind.
Furthermore, if tough challengers do not set fire to the national mood, it is hard to
know how they earn more votes than their weaker counterparts. One possibility,
suggested above, is that they use different national issues in different districts. Other
possibilities include simple name recognition, personality, or the use of purely local
issues. These are issues that should also be explored in greater detail.
Based on these data, however, it appears that more attention should be paid to
explaining the role of national politics in congressional elections. Local factors are
important, but national ones are instrumental in driving many of the outcomes. It is right
that the literature turned to local factors in the midst of a growing incumbency advantage,
but it may be time to shift some of the attention back.
McGhee
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Convention