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Table A2. Full Results for Table 2—Explaining the change in the challenger’s vote share
McGhee 38
Vote Swing (Year)
-6.27 (1994)
-3.38 (1984)
-3.03 (1980)
-2.43 (1978)
-1.68 (1976)
-1.43 (1992)
-1.06 (1988)
-.62
(1998)
Constant
30.97***
24.16***
19.99***
17.65***
15.70***
27.41***
19.01***
18.05***
Previous vote for challenger's party
-0.66***
-0.54***
-0.47***
-0.45***
-0.44***
-0.63***
-0.50***
-0.52***
(0.03)
(0.04)
(0.04)
(0.04)
(0.04)
(0.05)
(0.05)
(0.03)
Uncontested
-29.96***
-30.28***
-27.87***
-28.93***
-27.35***
-31.10***
-31.77***
-32.04***
(0.85)
(1.02)
(0.97)
(0.92)
(1.07)
(1.45)
(1.02)
(0.60)
Uncontested in previous election
19.89***
16.68***
19.62***
22.14***
20.84***
24.55***
21.16***
23.20***
(1.16)
(1.22)
(1.01)
(1.20)
(1.18)
(1.27)
(1.17)
(1.24)
Open in previous election
1.10#
-2.19*
-3.40***
-2.18*
-2.10*
-2.16
-1.21
-1.43#
(0.62)
(0.96)
(0.92)
(0.96)
(0.94)
(1.39)
(1.27)
(0.73)
Change in challenger experience
0.85
1.63*
1.60*
2.39**
1.45*
1.69#
0.43
1.24*
(0.65)
(0.71)
(0.70)
(0.69)
(0.64)
(0.96)
(0.98)
(0.53)
Change in challenger spending
0.26***
0.27***
0.26***
0.25***
0.22***
0.26***
0.20***
0.27***
(0.02)
(0.03)
(0.02)
(0.02)
(0.02)
(0.04)
(0.03)
(0.03)
Democratic challenger
-9.25***
-5.85***
-2.20**
-1.71*
-0.18
-1.18
-1.31
0.72
(0.58)
(0.76)
(0.66)
(0.73)
(0.75)
(0.79)
(0.82)
(0.52)
Democratic challenger x spending
0.01
0.01
0.06
-0.03
-0.00
-0.04
0.04
-0.08*
(0.04)
(0.05)
(0.04)
(0.04)
(0.04)
(0.06)
(0.05)
(0.03)
District partisanship
-0.38***
-0.21***
-0.20***
-0.18**
-0.12*
-0.35***
-0.14*
-0.16***
(0.04)
(0.05)
(0.06)
(0.06)
(0.05)
(0.05)
(0.06)
(0.04)
Adj R
2
0.89
0.77
0.82
0.83
0.78
0.85
0.78
0.90
M.S.E.
4.81
6.61
5.82
6.11
5.96
6.78
7.21
4.60
N
375
407
387
374
379
338
401
393
Cell entries are unstandardized OLS regression coefficients. Dependent variable in each model is the change in the district two-party vote for the challenger from the previous
election. Models were estimated in Stata 8.0 (StataCorp 2003). Standard errors are in parentheses.
#
p<.10, *p<.05, **p<.01
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