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Testing the Permanence of the Permanent Campaign: An Analysis of Presidential Polling Expenditures, 1977-2002

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Abstract:

Many presidential observers argue that the modern White House is the site of more-or-less permanent campaigning: high expectations are placed on chief executives, and to be effective, presidents must dedicate a great deal of energy and many resources to mobilizing public support. One indicator of the “permanent campaign” is the degree to which presidents since Ford have commissioned independent opinion polls and focus groups to assist in policymaking and political maneuvering. This paper assesses the “permanence” of the permanent campaign by examining monthly polling expenditures throughout four presidencies (Carter, Reagan, G.H.W. Bush, and Clinton). We find that for the most part, presidents do not vary significantly in the average amount spent per month. There is, however, considerable variation within presidential administrations; circumstances arise on occasion when much more “campaigning” is necessary. These episodes are not always clearly linked to the electoral calendar and merit further study.

Most Common Document Word Stems:

poll (77), presid (75), campaign (41), presidenti (38), public (36), perman (33), clinton (31), month (28), spend (26), bush (23), one (23), term (23), reagan (22), administr (22), hous (20), polit (19), carter (18), white (18), case (17), expenditur (17), pollster (16),

Author's Keywords:

permanent campaign, presidential polling, public opinion, public presidency
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Name: American Political Science Association
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MLA Citation:

McCann, Jay. and Tenpas, Kathryn. "Testing the Permanence of the Permanent Campaign: An Analysis of Presidential Polling Expenditures, 1977-2002" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hilton Chicago and the Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, IL, Sep 02, 2004 <Not Available>. 2009-05-26 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p60303_index.html>

APA Citation:

McCann, J. and Tenpas, K. , 2004-09-02 "Testing the Permanence of the Permanent Campaign: An Analysis of Presidential Polling Expenditures, 1977-2002" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hilton Chicago and the Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, IL Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-26 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p60303_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Many presidential observers argue that the modern White House is the site of more-or-less permanent campaigning: high expectations are placed on chief executives, and to be effective, presidents must dedicate a great deal of energy and many resources to mobilizing public support. One indicator of the “permanent campaign” is the degree to which presidents since Ford have commissioned independent opinion polls and focus groups to assist in policymaking and political maneuvering. This paper assesses the “permanence” of the permanent campaign by examining monthly polling expenditures throughout four presidencies (Carter, Reagan, G.H.W. Bush, and Clinton). We find that for the most part, presidents do not vary significantly in the average amount spent per month. There is, however, considerable variation within presidential administrations; circumstances arise on occasion when much more “campaigning” is necessary. These episodes are not always clearly linked to the electoral calendar and merit further study.

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Associated Document Available Political Research Online

Document Type: .PDF
Page count: 22
Word count: 5019
Text sample:
Testing the Permanence of the Permanent Campaign: An Analysis of Presidential Polling Expenditures 1977-2000 Kathryn Dunn Tenpas James A. McCann The Weidenbaum Center Department of Political Science Campus Box 1027 Purdue University Washington University in St. Louis West Lafayette IN 47907 St. Louis MO 63130-4899 mccannj@purdue.edu ktenpas@brookings.edu Prepared for delivery at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association Chicago IL September 2-5 2004. Copyright by the American Political Science Association. Please do not quote without authors' permission.
16 36 .500 G.H.W. Bush .036 .54 .657 1.51 None N/A Clinton I .058 .90 .449 2.73 24 .288 Clinton II .255 5.01 .005 1.70 46 .675 Note: The five percent significance points of D-Wupper and D-Wlower are 1.67 and 1.40 for positive serial correlation and 2.60 and 2.33 for negative serial correlation. Only in the Clinton I model is there evidence of significant negative serial correlation; nearly identical results are obtained when a Cochrane-Orcutt AR(1) regression is fit


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