(Page 22 of 22) - Testing the Permanence of the Permanent Campaign: An Analysis of Presidential Polling Expenditures, 1977-2002 authored by McCann, Jay. and Tenpas, Kathryn.

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Testing the Permanence of the Permanent Campaign: An Analysis of Presidential Polling Expenditures, 1977-2002

Unformatted Document Text: Table 2. Assessing Regression Fits Durbin- Months with Outlier R 2 , Outliers R 2 F 3,44 p(F) Watson Residuals (z > 3.00) Added as Dummies Carter .274 5.53 .003 1.64 46 .714 Reagan I .070 1.10 .361 2.31 38 .430 Reagan II .067 1.05 .381 2.41 16, 36 .500 G.H.W. Bush .036 .54 .657 1.51 None N / A Clinton I .058 .90 .449 2.73 24 .288 Clinton II .255 5.01 .005 1.70 46 .675 Note: The five percent significance points of D-W upper and D-W lower are 1.67 and 1.40 for positive serial correlation and 2.60 and 2.33 for negative serial correlation. Only in the Clinton I model is there evidence of significant negative serial correlation; nearly identical results are obtained when a Cochrane-OrcuttAR(1) regression is fit to control for this serial correlation.

Authors: McCann, Jay. and Tenpas, Kathryn.

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Table 2. Assessing Regression Fits

Durbin-

Months with Outlier

, Outliers

3,44

p(F)

Watson

Residuals (z > 3.00)

Added as Dummies

Carter

.274

5.53

.003

1.64

.714

Reagan I

.070

1.10

.361

2.31

.430

Reagan II

.067

1.05

.381

2.41

16, 36

.500

G.H.W. Bush

.036

.54

.657

1.51

None

N / A

Clinton I

.058

.90

.449

2.73

.288

Clinton II

.255

5.01

.005

1.70

.675

Note: The five percent significance points of D-W

upper

and D-W

lower

are 1.67 and 1.40 for positive serial correlation and 2.60 and 2.33 for negative serial

correlation. Only in the Clinton I model is there evidence of significant negative serial correlation; nearly identical results are obtained when a Cochrane-Orcutt
AR(1) regression is fit to control for this serial correlation.

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