24
Fair (2002: 22).
18
where FISCVAR, the fiscal variable, stands for F, F1, or FISCAL; SHIFT is a categorical
variable which, as suggested by Figure 6, takes into account five elections during which the
support schedule shifted forward (1936, 1944, 1956, 1964, and 1972); all other variables are
defined and measured as indicated in Table 1, Α is a constant (intercept), β
1
- β
8
are coefficients,
and Ε is an error term.
Table 3 displays the results. We estimated the complete model for each of the fiscal
measures and, in the case of F and FISCAL, where one or more variables did not show up as
statistically significant in the first model, in a second model that includes only those variables that
did, except that in the models for F and F1 we retained WARONVOTE regardless of how it fared
in the first run for the purpose of obtaining the most valid estimate of the coefficient for these two
fiscal two variables, which as already noted are subject to wide swings during war.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Table 3 about here
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Even though no bivariate relationship between F and VOTE2 was visually discerned in
Figure 3, which covers well over a century of observations, in the shorter data series 1916-2000 a
weak but nevertheless negative relation between F and VOTE2 emerges when the aforementioned
controls are applied, although the t-statistic for F’s coefficient is just under 2.0, thus falling short
of the conventional statistical significance threshold.
24
That qualification aside, other things equal
a difference of 8 points in the absolute level of F is associated with approximately a one point fall
in the incumbent share of the two-party vote. That this is hardly an earthshaking effect is just as
we had expected, since as already noted random shocks, minor disturbances, permanent shifts, and
incremental drifts of the support function in one direction or another render it almost impossible to
Convention