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According to a May 2004 Gallup poll, only 44 percent of the public now believe that
the war in Iraq was worth it, as opposed to 54 percent who think it was not.
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7. May 24
th
, 2004 Update.
As of April 29, 2004 Fair’s forecast for Bush’s share of the two-party vote stands at from
58.6 to between 58.7 and 60.6 percent, or an average of 60 percent (after rounding). The reason
for the spread is that two of the recent quarters were only one-tenth of a point below what is
considered a GOODNEWS quarter. If both are placed in the GOODNEWS category, in Fair’s
model this would add another 1.67 percent to the point forecast. Fair sums up his latest forecast
thus: "The main message that the equation has been making from the beginning is thus not
changed, namely that President Bush is predicted to win by a sizable margin." Actually, this is an
understatement: Fair is forecasting nothing less than a landslide victory for President Bush, a
reelection margin exceeded only by FDR in 1936, LBJ in 1964, and Richard Nixon in 1972.
Again, the prediction interval lying entirely in the positive side of the VICTORY/DEFEAT divide,
this forecast is about as rosy as it can get for the Bush camp.
By contrast, the fiscal model, which in light of the broken consensus over the war in Iraq
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appears to be the more appropriate of the two fiscal models to use, offers a less sanguine forecast.
The point prediction for President Bush’s share of the two-party vote obtained with this model is
between 52.4 and 53.2 percent, or an average of 53 percent (after rounding). This would be the
closest victory margin for a sitting president since Truman beat Dewey in 1948. To make matters
even less comfortable for the Bush team, the probability that the President will not win at least 51
percent of the vote, which in light of the uncertainties associated with the Electoral College is
about the minimum to assure reelection, ranges from 0.71 to 0.90. According to the fiscal model,
then, the chances are anywhere from 1 in 4 to 1 in 10 Bush will lose. Again, the reason for the
discrepancy in the forecast between Fair’s and the fiscal model has to do with fiscal policy.
Convention