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Fiscal Effects on Presidential Elections: A Forecast for 2004
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53
DATA APPENDIX
(continued)
Notes:
a. For data on Fair’s variables, see Fair (2002), available at http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu.
b. See Table 1 for Fair’s calculation of incumbents’ vote in 1912. We do not regard it as anincumbent victory in the popular vote.
c. VICTORY refers to the outcome of the two-party vote for president, not to formal election bythe Electoral College. Historically, there have been three times when the two results did notmatch: 1876, 1888, and 2000. All of them, incidentally, favored the Republicans.
* The value of F for 2004 is a projection that assumes no change from the 2003 value.
Sources.
For fiscal data: F as a percent of GNP (through 1960) is calculated from data in B. R. Mitchell,
International Historical Statistics. The Americas, 1750-1988; F as a percent of GDP (1964-2000)
is available in Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook, Fiscal Years
2004-2013, Appendix F, Table 6, “Outlays by Major Spending Category, 1962-2002,” available at
http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=1821&sequence=0#table6
For VOTE2, and all variables borrowed from Ray Fair, the source is Ray Fair, “The Effect of
Economic Events on Votes for President: 2000 Update,’ November 1, 2002, Presidential Vote
Equation, Fair Model Site, http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/RAYFAIR/PDF/2002DHTM.HTM.
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| | Authors: Cuzán, Alfred. and Bundrick, Charles. |
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53
DATA APPENDIX
(continued)
Notes:
a. For data on Fair’s variables, see Fair (2002), available at http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu.
b. See Table 1 for Fair’s calculation of incumbents’ vote in 1912. We do not regard it as an
incumbent victory in the popular vote.
c. VICTORY refers to the outcome of the two-party vote for president, not to formal election by
the Electoral College. Historically, there have been three times when the two results did not
match: 1876, 1888, and 2000. All of them, incidentally, favored the Republicans.
* The value of F for 2004 is a projection that assumes no change from the 2003 value.
Sources.
For fiscal data: F as a percent of GNP (through 1960) is calculated from data in B. R. Mitchell,
International Historical Statistics. The Americas, 1750-1988; F as a percent of GDP (1964-2000)
is available in Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook, Fiscal Years
2004-2013, Appendix F, Table 6, “Outlays by Major Spending Category, 1962-2002,” available at
http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=1821&sequence=0#table6
For VOTE2, and all variables borrowed from Ray Fair, the source is Ray Fair, “The Effect of
Economic Events on Votes for President: 2000 Update,’ November 1, 2002, Presidential Vote
Equation, Fair Model Site, http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/RAYFAIR/PDF/2002DHTM.HTM.
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