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Gaining traction: How Do Frontrunners Surface Before the Presidential Primaries?
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Gaining Traction: How Do Frontrunners Surface Before the Presidential Primaries?
Andrew J. Dowdle,
## email not listed ##
,
University of Arkansas
Wayne P. Steger,
## email not listed ##
,
DePaul University
Randall E. Adkins,
## email not listed ##
,
University of Nebraska-Omaha
Abstract: During the last decade, a number of scholarly studies have demonstrated a strong relationship between levels of mass partisan support during the pre-primary period for presidential nomination aspirants and success in fundraising, attracting media attention, and gathering endorsements. Researchers have also found a strong correlation between this indicator and candidate attrition once the primaries and caucuses commence, as well as ultimately winning or losing the nomination itself. However little work has been conducted that examines public opinion in the “invisible primary” or “exhibition season.” To address this gap in the literature, this paper examines pre-primary, Gallup poll results for open presidential nomination contests from 1976-2004. Using a series of simple and pooled regression models, this paper examines how different factors influence measures of mass opinion during the exhibition season. As expected, there are significant positive relationship between prior nomination campaign experience, measures of financial viability and television coverage, on one hand, and levels of mass public support on the other. While a large home state constituency is a strong initial advantage for Republican hopefuls, holding national office is more important for Democrats. In general, Democratic national Gallup polls exhibit considerable instability from quarter to quarter while Republican national Gallup polls are highly stable. These findings should help strengthen our understanding of what is driving popular support during the exhibition season, the relationship between the numerous activities among the various nomination elites and the partisan public, and how the nomination process itself.
Paper prepared for delivery at the 2004 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, September 2-5, 2004. Copyright by the American Political Science Association.
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| | Authors: Dowdle, Andrew. and Steger, Wayne. |
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Gaining Traction: How Do Frontrunners Surface Before the Presidential Primaries?
Andrew J. Dowdle,
## email not listed ##
,
University of Arkansas
Wayne P. Steger,
## email not listed ##
,
DePaul University
Randall E. Adkins,
## email not listed ##
,
University of Nebraska-Omaha
Abstract: During the last decade, a number of scholarly studies have demonstrated a strong
relationship between levels of mass partisan support during the pre-primary period for
presidential nomination aspirants and success in fundraising, attracting media attention, and
gathering endorsements. Researchers have also found a strong correlation between this indicator
and candidate attrition once the primaries and caucuses commence, as well as ultimately winning
or losing the nomination itself. However little work has been conducted that examines public
opinion in the “invisible primary” or “exhibition season.” To address this gap in the literature,
this paper examines pre-primary, Gallup poll results for open presidential nomination contests
from 1976-2004. Using a series of simple and pooled regression models, this paper examines
how different factors influence measures of mass opinion during the exhibition season. As
expected, there are significant positive relationship between prior nomination campaign
experience, measures of financial viability and television coverage, on one hand, and levels of
mass public support on the other. While a large home state constituency is a strong initial
advantage for Republican hopefuls, holding national office is more important for Democrats. In
general, Democratic national Gallup polls exhibit considerable instability from quarter to quarter
while Republican national Gallup polls are highly stable. These findings should help strengthen
our understanding of what is driving popular support during the exhibition season, the
relationship between the numerous activities among the various nomination elites and the
partisan public, and how the nomination process itself.
Paper prepared for delivery at the 2004 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science
Association, September 2-5, 2004. Copyright by the American Political Science Association.
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