(Page 3 of 32) - Gaining traction: How Do Frontrunners Surface Before the Presidential Primaries? authored by Dowdle, Andrew. and Steger, Wayne.

state on the results of the primaries and caucuses. Grush’s (1980) scope included the effects of
spending per state but also added past performance, and regional exposure for the same
campaign. However these models were limited to a particular electoral cycle and had little ability
to produce generalizable theory.

Bartels (1985, 1987, 1988) developed a series of models to explain the dynamics of the

campaign during the primaries. Rather than focusing on campaign spending, Bartels focused on
changes in public opinion across the primaries. Bartels found that prior expectations and support
for a candidate had a strong effect on primary voters’ preferences for candidates, and that voters
bandwagoned behind candidates who beat expectations for performance in the early caucuses
and primaries. Norrander (1993) analyzed the influence of campaign spending, past performance,
the number of candidates remaining in the race, and whether the candidate was a “favorite son”
of the state on state primary and caucuses votes during the 1976-1988 period. She found that
these variables were better predictors of candidates’ vote shares, whereas momentum was
primarily a factor for candidates who emerged as the main challenger to the nominee. Haynes,
Gurian, and Nichols (1997) built on her work by tracing the influence of variables such as
campaign spending, delegates pledged to the candidate, incumbency, whether the candidate was
a “favorite son” of the state on the 1980 and 1988 contests.

More recently, Cohen, et al. (2001, 2003) further develop these models, blending the

resource-based approach of Norrander and others, with the public opinion/momentum approach
of Bartels. Cohen et al. analyze both dynamic and static factors (ideological positioning, money,
media and elite endorsements) in all presidential primary contests since the McGovern-Fraser
reforms. They conclude that momentum continues to exist, but has changed since the 1970s, now
favoring insider candidates whereas previously it was relative dark-horse candidates who
benefited from momentum during the primaries.

A second vein of research seeks to forecast or predict the total primary vote using

information from before the primaries. If momentum is insufficient to propel non-front runners
to the top as Norrander (1993) finds or works to reinforce the status of the front-runner as Cohen
et al (2003) find, the outcomes of presidential primaries should be predictable from information
about candidates prior to the primaries. With the increasing impact of frontloading (Mayer and
Busch, 2004) and fundraising during the exhibition season (Adkins and Dowdle, 2002), an
approach that focuses on the campaign before the primaries became increasingly attractive.

The total primary-vote studies tried to forecast or “postcast” the cumulative primary vote

total of candidates through variables utilizing available prior to the Iowa caucuses. Mayer
(1996a) uses the last national Gallup poll taken prior to the Iowa caucuses and campaign finance
data from December 31 of the year prior to the election to post-cast election outcomes from
1980-1996. Mayer (2003a, 2003b) reproduced his models for the 2000 Republican and
Democratic contests with similar results. A central theme in Mayer’s work, elaborated in his
(1996b) book, is that the Democratic Party is less unified and therefore has more divisive
nomination campaigns.

Steger (2000) also uses information from the exhibition season to forecast the final

primary vote totals. However his model makes a number of innovations. He adds television