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Gaining traction: How Do Frontrunners Surface Before the Presidential Primaries?
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Table 4b: OLS models of Republican candidate position in national Gallup polls, by quarter, for the pre-primary year through the last national Gallup poll prior to the Iowa Caucuses, 1976-2004.
1
1
st
quarter
2
nd
quarter
3
rd
quarter
4
th
quarter
January
Constant -3.33
(2.79)
-.31
(1.83)
.30
(4.86)
-2.74**
(1.22)
-3.03**
(1.17)
Vice President
.84
(8.08)
-4.91
(4.02)
.64
(2.21)
1.31
(2.76)
-1.49
(2.58)
Prior nomination campaign
5.85
(3.51)
.63
(1.95)
-1.26
(1.31)
2.45*
(1.33)
.78
(1.15)
Prior national ticket
6.93
(4.63)
.94
(2.92)
-2.53
(1.91)
-.82
(2.00)
1.84
(1.85)
Home state constituency size
.61***
(.19)
.05
(.11)
-.05
(.09)
.04
(.09)
.02
(.08)
Officially in race
-2.14
(3.39)
-.43
(2.15)
-.52
(4.56)
1.37
(1.37)
1.45
(1.23)
TV news in January
.78***
(.16)
.27**
(.14)
.05
(.12)
.18*
(.10)
.28***
(.09)
Quarterly starting funds
-.09*
(.05)
.06
(.05)
.07
(.05)
-.004
(.05)
.05
(.06)
Quarterly disbursements
.08
(.13)
-.03
(.10)
-.02
(.10)
-.02
(.06)
.11
(.08)
Lagged Gallup
(Q-1)
--
.68***
(.11)
1.00****
(.08)
.88***
(.08)
.70***
(.09)
r
2
.75 .94 .97 .97 .98
Adj. r
2
.67 .92 .96 .96 .97
F
10.2 46.9 104.51
101.72 135.8
DW
1.99 2.53 2.24 2.13 2.51
N
37
37
37
37
37
***p <.01, ** < .05, * p < .10
1
National Gallup polls conducted in January of the election year are measured as quarter five in
the pre-nomination campaign. Gallup polls are averaged to the quarterly level of the pre-primary year. Models with lagged Gallup exclude the first quarter of the pre-primary year.
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| | Authors: Dowdle, Andrew. and Steger, Wayne. |
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31
Table 4b: OLS models of Republican candidate position in national Gallup polls, by quarter, for
the pre-primary year through the last national Gallup poll prior to the Iowa Caucuses, 1976-
2004.
1
1
st
quarter
2
nd
quarter
3
rd
quarter
4
th
quarter
January
Constant -3.33
(2.79)
-.31
(1.83)
.30
(4.86)
-2.74**
(1.22)
-3.03**
(1.17)
Vice President
.84
(8.08)
-4.91
(4.02)
.64
(2.21)
1.31
(2.76)
-1.49
(2.58)
Prior nomination
campaign
5.85
(3.51)
.63
(1.95)
-1.26
(1.31)
2.45*
(1.33)
.78
(1.15)
Prior national ticket
6.93
(4.63)
.94
(2.92)
-2.53
(1.91)
-.82
(2.00)
1.84
(1.85)
Home state
constituency size
.61***
(.19)
.05
(.11)
-.05
(.09)
.04
(.09)
.02
(.08)
Officially in race
-2.14
(3.39)
-.43
(2.15)
-.52
(4.56)
1.37
(1.37)
1.45
(1.23)
TV news in January
.78***
(.16)
.27**
(.14)
.05
(.12)
.18*
(.10)
.28***
(.09)
Quarterly starting
funds
-.09*
(.05)
.06
(.05)
.07
(.05)
-.004
(.05)
.05
(.06)
Quarterly
disbursements
.08
(.13)
-.03
(.10)
-.02
(.10)
-.02
(.06)
.11
(.08)
Lagged Gallup
(Q-1)
--
.68***
(.11)
1.00****
(.08)
.88***
(.08)
.70***
(.09)
r
2
.75 .94 .97 .97 .98
Adj. r
2
.67 .92 .96 .96 .97
F
10.2 46.9 104.51
101.72 135.8
DW
1.99 2.53 2.24 2.13 2.51
N
37
37
37
37
37
***p <.01, ** < .05, * p < .10
1
National Gallup polls conducted in January of the election year are measured as quarter five in
the pre-nomination campaign. Gallup polls are averaged to the quarterly level of the pre-primary
year. Models with lagged Gallup exclude the first quarter of the pre-primary year.
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