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Taking the Keys from Grandpa: Policy Diffusion Failure or Stealth Policy?
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Older Drivers as a Policy Problem
Older drivers are a growing problem in the U.S. – a reality that is regularly
highlighted by events such as the July, 2003 accident in Santa Monica in which an 86-year-old driver plowed into a crowd at an open-air market, injuring dozens of individuals and killing ten. Older drivers are not the most accident-prone age group. But they do have a higher crash rate than any other age group except teenagers; and the accident fatality rate is noticeably elevated for elderly drivers, in part because of their somewhat higher crash rate and in part because, when involved in a crash, the greater fragility of elderly citizens makes their injuries more likely to be fatal (Lyman, Ferguson, Braver and Williams, 2002; Cerrelli, 1998). In addition, elderly drivers are “one of the fastest growing segments of the driving population” (“Driving and Vision in an Aging Society”, 2003). The number of licensed drivers aged 70 or older increased 36% from 1990 to 2000 – to 18.9 million – compared with an overall 14% increase in licensed drivers over the decade. By 2000, drivers aged 70 or older constituted 10% of all licensed drivers (Traffic Safety Facts 2001).
This paper examines variations across the American states in policies that concern
the licensing of elderly drivers. Some of the states have given no indication that any special measures should be taken, while others have implemented elaborate systems of regulation. With the exception of drivers under 21, the general trend has been to loosen the screening that is applied to drivers of all ages, but this trend has not extended to senior age categories in all of the states. In fact, while many states have become more permissive, some of the states have escalated their efforts to identify dangerous drivers, even if that means focusing on the elderly.
These differences observed across states are our major focus in this project. Put
simply, the question is, why are some states so much more lenient (or strict) than others? Based on data gathered for the period 1980 to 2003, we attempt to determine the extent to which various social and political variables affect public policy on older drivers. We begin with a description of the kinds of policies that have been adopted in a number of states. The paper then turns to the development of a series of hypotheses to account for policy differences across the roughly 250 state-years that constitute our cases. Finally, empirical evidence bearing on those hypotheses is examined.
State Policies Relevant to the Elderly Driver Problem
State policy responses to the elderly driver problem can be grouped into two
contrasting strategies which we designate (a) the medical approach and (b) the renewal requirements approach. Each includes a cluster of specific policies to be explored in this paper.
The Renewal Requirements Approach
When automobiles were introduced and became widely owned, the state
governments adopted systems to regulate traffic, automobile ownership, and to license drivers. At the outset, most states were relatively informal. The law would state that “habitual drunkards” or “incompetents” must not have licenses, and it would empower administrators to sort out the good drivers from the bad. The grants of discretion were
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1
Older Drivers as a Policy Problem
Older drivers are a growing problem in the U.S. – a reality that is regularly
highlighted by events such as the July, 2003 accident in Santa Monica in which an 86-
year-old driver plowed into a crowd at an open-air market, injuring dozens of individuals
and killing ten. Older drivers are not the most accident-prone age group. But they do
have a higher crash rate than any other age group except teenagers; and the accident
fatality rate is noticeably elevated for elderly drivers, in part because of their somewhat
higher crash rate and in part because, when involved in a crash, the greater fragility of
elderly citizens makes their injuries more likely to be fatal (Lyman, Ferguson, Braver and
Williams, 2002; Cerrelli, 1998). In addition, elderly drivers are “one of the fastest
growing segments of the driving population” (“Driving and Vision in an Aging Society”,
2003). The number of licensed drivers aged 70 or older increased 36% from 1990 to
2000 – to 18.9 million – compared with an overall 14% increase in licensed drivers over
the decade. By 2000, drivers aged 70 or older constituted 10% of all licensed drivers
(Traffic Safety Facts 2001).
This paper examines variations across the American states in policies that concern
the licensing of elderly drivers. Some of the states have given no indication that any
special measures should be taken, while others have implemented elaborate systems of
regulation. With the exception of drivers under 21, the general trend has been to loosen
the screening that is applied to drivers of all ages, but this trend has not extended to
senior age categories in all of the states. In fact, while many states have become more
permissive, some of the states have escalated their efforts to identify dangerous drivers,
even if that means focusing on the elderly.
These differences observed across states are our major focus in this project. Put
simply, the question is, why are some states so much more lenient (or strict) than others?
Based on data gathered for the period 1980 to 2003, we attempt to determine the extent to
which various social and political variables affect public policy on older drivers. We
begin with a description of the kinds of policies that have been adopted in a number of
states. The paper then turns to the development of a series of hypotheses to account for
policy differences across the roughly 250 state-years that constitute our cases. Finally,
empirical evidence bearing on those hypotheses is examined.
State Policies Relevant to the Elderly Driver Problem
State policy responses to the elderly driver problem can be grouped into two
contrasting strategies which we designate (a) the medical approach and (b) the renewal
requirements approach. Each includes a cluster of specific policies to be explored in this
paper.
The Renewal Requirements Approach
When automobiles were introduced and became widely owned, the state
governments adopted systems to regulate traffic, automobile ownership, and to license
drivers. At the outset, most states were relatively informal. The law would state that
“habitual drunkards” or “incompetents” must not have licenses, and it would empower
administrators to sort out the good drivers from the bad. The grants of discretion were
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