Candidate Gender and Voting in Statewide Elections: Evidence from Ohio
What is the significance of candidate gender for American elections? Because most
aggregate studies have found that women and men win their races at similar rates on average, many
scholars have assumed that voters’ gender stereotypes are inconsequential. However, these
assumptions have not usually been tested empirically. The dearth of public opinion surveys that
include both individual-level stereotype measures and vote choice questions have made studying
these questions more difficult. As a result, some studies have examined the effects of stereotypes
on hypothetical vote questions. Other scholars have modeled voting behavior but without the
benefit of gender stereotype measures. Together, these studies have made significant progress in
advancing our understanding of whether, and under what conditions, gender stereotypes may affect
the vote. Yet, these questions merit further investigation if we are to understand more precisely
how candidate gender shapes electoral behavior. In particular, further analysis of the individual’s
vote decision is needed in order to understand the link between stereotypes and voting behavior.
In a previous paper, I argued that voter stereotypes are significant because they lead many
voters to have a baseline gender preference, or underlying predisposition, to vote for male or
female candidates. All else equal, some voters would rather vote for female candidates and be
represented by a woman while others would rather vote for male candidates and be represented by a
man (Sanbonmatsu 2002). In this paper, I analyze a unique dataset that includes both the baseline
gender preference measure and vote choice questions. I examine the hypothesis that the baseline
gender preference is related to the vote in races featuring one man and one woman, but not in races
where both candidates are men. In contrast to same-gender contests, races involving a female
candidate and male opponent provide an opportunity for voters to act on their baseline gender
Convention