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Voter Turnout in California’s ‘Multi-Party’ Recall Election

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Abstract:

The 2003 California recall was an extraordinary election in many regards, from the institutional rules, to the large field of candidates, to the actual results. One of the most exceptional outcomes was the level of voter turnout for a special election (61% of registered voters). Yet it has been unclear who these voters were. Did it include disproportionate numbers of new registrants, young voters, Independents, and registered non-voters? This paper explores these questions using official voter registration and history data from California. We find that as strange as this election was the electorate that turned out to vote in it was very normal. The recall turnout was primarily an ordinary combination of habitual voters – those who vote in every scheduled general election, plus those who vote only in presidential contests. Most registrants who don’t at least find presidential elections important were not compelled to vote in the recall.

Most Common Document Word Stems:

vote (236), recal (166), elect (143), voter (127), turnout (100), parti (91), registr (84), among (80), california (73), candid (73), counti (71), 2002 (70), 2003 (60), state (58), regist (58), republican (53), 1 (51), polit (47), like (45), davi (43), democrat (42),

Author's Keywords:

Turnout, Schwarzenegger, California, Voter History
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Name: American Political Science Association
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MLA Citation:

Gray, Mark. "Voter Turnout in California’s ‘Multi-Party’ Recall Election" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hilton Chicago and the Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, IL, Sep 02, 2004 <Not Available>. 2009-05-26 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p60765_index.html>

APA Citation:

Gray, M. M. , 2004-09-02 "Voter Turnout in California’s ‘Multi-Party’ Recall Election" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hilton Chicago and the Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, IL Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-26 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p60765_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: The 2003 California recall was an extraordinary election in many regards, from the institutional rules, to the large field of candidates, to the actual results. One of the most exceptional outcomes was the level of voter turnout for a special election (61% of registered voters). Yet it has been unclear who these voters were. Did it include disproportionate numbers of new registrants, young voters, Independents, and registered non-voters? This paper explores these questions using official voter registration and history data from California. We find that as strange as this election was the electorate that turned out to vote in it was very normal. The recall turnout was primarily an ordinary combination of habitual voters – those who vote in every scheduled general election, plus those who vote only in presidential contests. Most registrants who don’t at least find presidential elections important were not compelled to vote in the recall.

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Associated Document Available Political Research Online

Document Type: .pdf
Page count: 48
Word count: 13853
Text sample:
Voter Turnout in California's `Multi-Party' Recall Election: Reviewing Voter History Data from Los Angeles Orange and San Francisco Counties Mark M. Gray Georgetown University mmg34@georgetown.edu Martin P. Wattenberg University of California Irvine mpwatten@uci.edu Prepared for delivery at the 2004 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association Sept. 2-5 2004. This paper is an early draft; comments are most welcome. Authors listed in alphabetical order. For correspondence please contact Mark Gray (mmg34@georgetown.edu). 1 "Turnout is going to make the
% (zip code) 1.000 .993*** Republican % (zip code) 1.009*** 1.011*** Other % (zip code) -- -- Area Los Angeles -- -- Orange County .841*** .727*** San Francisco 1.664*** 1.584*** Number of Cases/Random% 359 956/10% 295 023/20% Correct Prediction 71.7% 71.5% Nagelkerke R-Square .075 .030 *p<.05 **p<.01 ***p<.001. Table reports Exp(B) coefficients. Excluded reference categories.


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