2
helped generate more than $230 million in box office receipts
2
for Arnold’s movies in the
last decade? Were immigrants more likely to vote in this contest where the winning
candidate was Austrian-born and the runner-up was a Latino candidate, Lt. Gov. Cruz
Bustamante, who was expected to generate enthusiasm among California’s large
population of foreign and native-born Latinos? Did the plurality threshold along with the
lack of party primaries preceding the election create a unique “multi-party” feel that
brought out more supporters of minor parties or disaffected members of the major parties
who could now legitimately support a candidate who perhaps would not have survived a
primary?
This paper explores official voter history data for 5.4 million voters obtained from
registrars in three of California’s most populous counties – Los Angeles, Orange, and San
Francisco – to isolate detailed portraits of the electorate that cast votes in the recall.
These data provide a window into the recall turnout in a diversity of settings and
populations – to staunchly Republican areas, to Democrat strongholds (as well as those
mixed-party areas between), from the stucco mansions of the O.C. Newport Beach
coastline, to the vibrant Latino communities of East Los Angeles, to the bustle of San
Francisco’s Chinatown. Together, these portraits tell a tale, or perhaps more aptly said,
finish a story. That story reads like a movie script ending with more than 4.2 million
California voters selecting Arnold Schwarzenegger to be their governor (a plurality,
48.6% of votes cast).
As Anthony Downs noted the costs of voting among a large electorate nearly
always outweigh the instrumental benefits (1957). Voting requires investment. “These
2
His films have netted $1.7 billion at the box office (unadjusted for inflation) over his career.
Convention