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Voter Turnout in California’s ‘Multi-Party’ Recall Election
Unformatted Document Text:  47 Table 5. Logistic Regression Models of Recall Turnout among Past Voters & Non-Voters Those with 2000 and/or2002 Voting History Those WithoutVoting History Constant 1.782*** .450*** Age 18-24 .411*** .912*** 25-29 .465*** .879*** 30-34 .601*** .959* 35-39 .799*** 1.005 40-44 † -- -- 45-49 1.182*** 1.069*** 50-54 1.389*** 1.138*** 55-59 1.516*** 1.188*** 60-64 1.564*** 1.168*** 65-69 1.596*** 1.135*** 70-74 1.616*** 1.048 75-79 1.488*** .927* 80-84 1.156*** .668*** 85-89 .758*** .484*** 90-94 .543*** .315*** 95-99 .361*** .313*** Birth Place California .993 .854*** U.S. (other than CA) † -- -- U.S. Territory .536*** .605*** Foreign-Born .656*** .745*** Decline to State/Unknown .791*** .664*** Party Registration Democrat 1.228*** 1.054*** Republican 1.472*** 1.285*** Green 1.389*** 1.492*** Libertarian 1.257*** 1.127* Natural Law .780*** .474*** American Independent .936* .802*** Peace and Freedom .833** .495*** None/Other † -- -- Community Partisanship Democrat % (zip code) 1.000 .993*** Republican % (zip code) 1.009*** 1.011*** Other % (zip code) † -- -- Area Los Angeles † -- -- Orange County .841*** .727*** San Francisco 1.664*** 1.584*** Number of Cases/Random% 359,956/10% 295,023/20% Correct Prediction 71.7% 71.5% Nagelkerke R-Square .075 .030 *p<.05, **p<.01, ***p<.001. Table reports Exp(B) coefficients. † Excluded reference categories.

Authors: Gray, Mark.
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47
Table 5. Logistic Regression Models of Recall Turnout among Past Voters & Non-Voters
Those with 2000 and/or
2002 Voting History
Those Without
Voting History
Constant
1.782***
.450***
Age
18-24
.411***
.912***
25-29
.465***
.879***
30-34
.601***
.959*
35-39
.799***
1.005
40-44
†
--
--
45-49
1.182***
1.069***
50-54
1.389***
1.138***
55-59
1.516***
1.188***
60-64
1.564***
1.168***
65-69
1.596***
1.135***
70-74
1.616***
1.048
75-79
1.488***
.927*
80-84
1.156***
.668***
85-89
.758***
.484***
90-94
.543***
.315***
95-99
.361***
.313***
Birth Place
California
.993
.854***
U.S. (other than CA)
†
--
--
U.S. Territory
.536***
.605***
Foreign-Born
.656***
.745***
Decline to State/Unknown
.791***
.664***
Party Registration
Democrat
1.228***
1.054***
Republican
1.472***
1.285***
Green
1.389***
1.492***
Libertarian
1.257***
1.127*
Natural Law
.780***
.474***
American Independent
.936*
.802***
Peace and Freedom
.833**
.495***
None/Other
†
--
--
Community Partisanship
Democrat % (zip code)
1.000
.993***
Republican % (zip code)
1.009***
1.011***
Other % (zip code)
†
--
--
Area
Los Angeles
†
--
--
Orange County
.841***
.727***
San Francisco
1.664***
1.584***
Number of Cases/Random%
359,956/10%
295,023/20%
Correct Prediction
71.7%
71.5%
Nagelkerke R-Square
.075
.030
*p<.05, **p<.01, ***p<.001. Table reports Exp(B) coefficients.
†
Excluded reference categories.


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