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Campaign Spending Effects in U.S. Senate Elections: Evidence from the National Annenberg Election Survey
Unformatted Document Text:  Table 10. The Effect of Spending on the Vote (Panel Study) _______________________________________________________________________ Coefficient Standard Error Coefficient Standard Error _______________________________________________________________________ Initial preference 1.06*** .10 1.06*** .10 Challenger’s spending per voting-age resident .54*** .09 .65*** .08 Incumbent’s spending per voting-age resident .28** .11 Party identification .33*** .05 .33*** .05 Presidential vote 1.22*** .11 1.21*** .11 Log of voting age population .69*** .12 .49*** .09 Constant -7.60*** 1.23 -5.56*** .79 Log likelihood -609.89 -613.27 Pseudo R 2 .56 .56 Number of cases 2089 2089 _______________________________________________________________________ Note: The dependent variable is 1 if the respondent voted for the challenger, 0 if for the incumbent. **p<.01; ***p<.001 Figure 13. Challenger Spending and Changes in Senate Vote Preference, Pre- to Post-Election Wave of Panel Survey 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 Challenger Spending Per Voting-Age Resident P e rc e n t S upporting Cha lle nge r Initially preferred incumbent No initial preference Initially preferred challenger 29

Authors: Jacobson, Gary.
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Table 10. The Effect of Spending on the Vote (Panel Study)
_______________________________________________________________________

Coefficient
Standard
Error
Coefficient
Standard
Error
_______________________________________________________________________
Initial preference
1.06***
.10
1.06***
.10
Challenger’s spending per voting-age resident
.54***
.09
.65***
.08
Incumbent’s spending per voting-age resident
.28**
.11
Party identification
.33***
.05
.33***
.05
Presidential vote
1.22***
.11
1.21***
.11
Log of voting age population
.69***
.12
.49***
.09
Constant
-7.60***
1.23
-5.56***
.79
Log likelihood
-609.89
-613.27
Pseudo R
2
.56
.56
Number of cases
2089
2089
_______________________________________________________________________
Note: The dependent variable is 1 if the respondent voted for the challenger, 0 if for the incumbent.

**p<.01; ***p<.001

Figure 13. Challenger Spending and Changes in Senate Vote Preference, Pre- to
Post-Election Wave of Panel Survey
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
Challenger Spending Per Voting-Age Resident
P
e
rc
e
n
t
S
upporting

Cha
l
l
e
nge
r
Initially preferred incumbent
No initial preference
Initially preferred challenger
29


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