3
Introduction
Expectations are an essential part of how people make judgments. Whether
people are evaluating the performance of the economy or the performance of a sports
team, expectations can weigh heavily on how success or failure is ultimately viewed.
Evaluations of candidates for political office are often dependent on expectations. Some
candidates are expected to perform better than other candidates, whether it is because
they are well-known incumbents, well-financed challengers, celebrities, or former
athletes. How these candidates then perform in the actual election season will be
compared with the expectations set for them. Candidates that gain strength in the polls
despite low expectations can see increased interest in their candidacies, even if their poll
numbers are still well below their opponent’s. And candidates who are expected to do
well but do not will be roundly criticized for failing to live up to their potential.
Comparing expectations to ultimate performance is not the only role for
expectations. Candidates are constantly evaluated by voters and the media, and
expectations about performance can be an important part of those evaluations. If a
candidate is performing well compared to their expectations, then some voters might
begin to evaluate that candidate more favorably, and may even jump on the bandwagon
to support that candidate. Conversely, candidates whose electoral chances are fading
may see additional voters defect to a more successful candidate. As a result, expectations
can be seen to play a crucial role in determining the level of support for a candidate.
Given the important role that expectations can play in the electoral setting, it is
surprising that relatively few studies have been applied to finding the source of
expectations or establishing a strong theory for how and why they change over the course
Convention