17
These caveats noted, it is still a characteristic of many liberal and radical writings that
they imply or openly assert the possibility of change in normatively desirable directions. Since
this is generally taken for granted with respect to earlier classics of idealist theory, I will
illustrate how this can also be an explicit theme in important contemporary statements of theory.
I start with a clearly liberal example. In their book Triangulating Peace, Russett and Oneal
attempt to present the case for the well-known democratic peace hypothesis in a form accessible
to a general audience, and they build on the democratic peace idea to make the case for a broader
Kantian peace. Russett and Oneal argue that democracy, interdependence, membership in
international organizations, and peaceful relations are mutually reinforcing among sets of states
that share those attributes. They label this a Kantian peace because they believe this is
essentially the set of factors Kant emphasized when he forecast the development of “perpetual
peace” more than two centuries ago. In developing their argument, Russett and Oneal use both
probabilistic and possibilistic language:
[O]ur conception is of a dynamic system, one not simply maintaining itself in
some unchanging equilibrium but able to evolve. We will argue that certain
virtuous circles exist that are self-reinforcing. This means that the probabilistic
generalizations we will make (democracy, economic interdependence, and
international organizations make military conflict less likely; democracies are
more likely to be interdependent; etc.) are apt to become stronger, and the system
itself more stable over time. This evolutionary development is not inevitable, but
there are good reasons to believe that it will continue, especially if leading states
adopt sound policies.
22
The revised Kantian vision emphasizes the possibility of changing international
politics, especially with the peaceful end of the cold war, from one dominated by
vicious circles into something more constructive. The next century of world
politics may build on the achievements of the past century, or it may see them
22
Bruce Russett and John Oneal, Triangulating Peace: Democracy, Interdependence, and International
Organizations (New York: W.W. Norton, 2001), p. 35, emphasis added.
Convention