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future is envisioned that is different from the past, however, then an explanation of why the past
was the way it was would not automatically be accepted as the best basis for predicting the future.
To test or validate an envisionation, therefore, might require some different choices in research
method or design than when one is testing a theory for its overall explanatory power.
- Whereas explanatory theory is often probabilistic, efforts to envision alternative futures involve
making arguments that are “possibilistic.” To suggest that an outcome is possible is not to say
that it is the most probable outcome. It is only a prediction that, if certain actors act in certain
ways and certain other factors develop in certain ways, a particular outcome could feasibly be
attained. The contrary to a possibilistic hypothesis would be to suggest that something is either
completely impossible or else so improbable that it is not realistically worth taking seriously. In
addition to predicting that something is either likely or virtually impossible, it is possible to
hypothesize that a given result is distinctly possible but nevertheless more unlikely than likely.
If the less likely result would also be the more desirable, then such a situation raises a difficult
choice about whether to try to achieve the less likely but more preferable outcome.
- Standard efforts to predict the future on the basis of what is theoretically most likely are
exercises in forecasting. Efforts to ascertain the parameters of what is possible can be described
instead as “feasibility-casting.” The question is whether an outcome is realistically feasible
should events proceed down a certain path, rather than whether it is the most likely outcome
given conditions as they stand at the moment of making a prediction.
- Theories are sometimes built by starting with simplifying “as if” assumptions. The validity of
making such assumptions, as well as the specific assumptions made, are both controversial.
Possibilistic arguments are often asserted through the use of what might be called an “and
therefore” clause. The validity of feasibility-casts made through the use of an “and therefore”
clause can also often be questioned.
Now that I have suggested language with which to label the concepts I wish to discuss, I can
show the role these concepts play in IR theory debates.
Convention